Middle East

Europe's four options for Hormuz

Without a swift agreement, the Strait remains a global friction point. The risk is that the crisis will result in a lasting energy, trade and security shock

 REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

"Europe's options for Hormuz: few and risky". This is how the New York Times summarises the Western impasse over the Strait through which some 20% of the world's oil and gas passes, while the war in Iran continues to have global effects. The analysis opens with a proposal by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, presented at a videoconference meeting organised by the UK in recent days: the creation of a "humanitarian corridor" to ensure the safe passage of fertilisers and essential goods, in an attempt to prevent the conflict from producing famine in Africa. The plan, one of several proposals that also emerged outside Europe, was not approved and the meeting ended without a concrete agreement to reopen the strait, neither militarily nor on other fronts.

Pressure from the United States remains on the table. According to the American newspaper, European leaders are urged by President Donald Trump to commit military resources, end the blockade imposed by Iran, and contain an energy and economic crisis that is worsening by the hour. So far, however, Europe has not taken up the call to send warships and continues to discuss how to unblock Hormuz. The difficulty in finding a common line reflects both the slow pace of European diplomacy and the large number of countries involved, including those in the Gulf, who are interested in securing the strait once the war is over.Many states, including Italia and Germany, also insist that any initiative must come under the umbrella of the United Nations, a condition that risks slowing down action even further.

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The analysis therefore identifies four options, none of which appear to be decisive, even assuming a halt to operations.

The first is that of naval escorts. French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly raised the possibility of French warships escorting merchant ships in the strait after the end of the conflict. The United States is also pushing for allies, including countries such as Japan, to protect ships flying its flag. The limitation is twofold: stocks are expensive and air defence systems may not be enough to stop attacks, particularly with drones, should Iran decide to strike.

The second option concerns mine clearance. German and Belgian officials have said they are ready to send minesweepers to clear the strait of any explosives. However, the Western military leadership is not convinced that Iran has actually mined the area, not least because some Iranian ships continue to transit it.The minesweepers could therefore be used as support for naval escorts, but without a decisive role.

The third way is control from above. The hypothesis is to send fighter jets and drones to intercept possible Iranian attacks on ships. Here too, Washington has urged Europe to move, but the plan has high costs and does not guarantee results. Iran could in fact strike by simple means, even with small vessels: a few successful attacks would be enough to scare off insurers and ship owners and discourage traffic.

The fourth option combines military instruments and diplomacy. The aim would be to exert pressure on Iran through negotiations and economic levers, flanked by a military presence capable of enforcing any agreements. An effort that would go beyond Europe: the German Foreign Ministry has called on China to use its influence on Tehran in a 'constructive' manner. So far, negotiations have had little effect on the course of the conflict, but remain, according to the New York Times, the most viable route in the absence of better alternatives.

Finally, the worst scenario remains. Iranian officials stated this week that they will continue to control traffic in the strait even after the war and that they have already drawn up plans to impose tolls on ships, despite the fact that international law provides for free navigation. This would make one of the most strategic passages in the global economy even more unstable.

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