Opinions

The future cannot be predicted: the constancy of change and the duty to be ready

by Bernardo Bertoldi

5 October 2025

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

'We live in a time of such uncertainty that if someone tells you that they can plan the next two years with certainty, they are crazy'. How can one disagree? From Covid to inflation, from disruptions in international supply networks to political tensions, the last five years have seen wars and geopolitical confusion. The phrase actually comes from Lee Iacocca, CEO of Chrysler in 1980.

Schumpeter made it clear that creative destruction in the modern competitive system is always in action, this makes the change a constant: only the speed of the change and the direction that those who lead the companies change. The speed of change can be low or high and the direction can be backwards or forwards. When the direction is towards the past and the speed of change low we have Decadence, when it is high we have Implosion. When the direction is towards the future at low speed of change you have Evolution, at high speed you have Revolution.

At the conference of the AIDAF, Associazione Italiana Delle Aziende Familiari, which has just ended in Turin, there was talk of how to 'govern uncertainty with vision and confidence' and, confirming that change is a constant, the association's previous conference held in Turin in 2009 was entitled: 'family businesses through and beyond the crisis'. So if uncertainty and crisis are constant ingredients in the business landscape, how do we deal with them? The two conferences help us in the first answer by going through and beyond with vision and confidence. In practice, how? By looking beyond, in the long term.

Porter, the master of strategy, said in a seminar at Harvard Business School: '... one challenge for theory is the time period against which to measure and understand competitive success. Should we build theories to explain success ... over decades or even centuries? Clearly, the probability of significant environmental changes will differ, as will the exogenous and endogenous variables. A theory that aims to explain success over 50 years will focus on very different, almost inevitably more internal, variables than a theory that considers success over one or two decades. This is because industry and competitive conditions are likely to be quite different over half a century, and this requires a greater emphasis on a company's ability to transform itself'.

The entrepreneurs who spoke at the conference offered a number of insights into this ability to transform; combining them reveals a three-point recipe.

The first: obsession with the product. Guido Barilla said 'you have to be careful to do well what you know how to do, when you stray you can make serious mistakes' and added the importance of time spent within the entrepreneurial family talking about product between generations. Many other speakers confirmed the approach; Andreas Loacker: 'in the family we spend a lot of time figuring out if the products we want to launch and the ingredients we use are good' (familyandtrends and others nodded positively); Giorgio Marsiaj: 'Italy is a manufacturing country, this is confirmed by the more than 600 billion euro export, our companies make themselves known in the world through the product'.

The second: generations are responsible for the adaptation of the product over time. In addition to the time spent handing down the product secrets mentioned by Barilla and Loacker, Giovanna Vitelli 'in my growth in the company I have always participated in product development committees, this must be a direct responsibility of the entrepreneurial family: my first test-bed was the Magellano collection to create a successful range and introduce a niche product to a new public'. And when the product is a service or when it is intangible? The equation does not change it is always about what is good and useful in a different way for a customer.

The third: the acceleration of the speed of change is not predictable, being ready is a must. Alessandro Garrone, representing the Garrone-Mondini family of ERG, winner of the 20th Falck Prize for the best family business, said: "it is necessary to work continuously by involving the generations in order to have transparent and sophisticated governance processes, it is a matter of having the house in order every day in order to be ready the day an opportunity needs to be seized"; this is the secret that has allowed this entrepreneurial family for decades to have relationships and partnerships with international industrial groups and to decide quickly to change technology, business model and industrial sector. Here too, other confirmations came from Caterina Sella: 'we involve young people early on, we push them to be responsible shareholders and we work so that there is knowledge and trust among all shareholders' and from Alessandro Boglione: 'we have always worked with the founder to be ready, so much so that my brother and I are the first generation and a half, not the second'.

It is certain that there is uncertainty today as there was yesterday and as there will be tomorrow, it is also certain that the speed of change may accelerate abruptly and that there will be times when hard and fast decisions will be needed. Even in the life of the enterprise it can be said that: "there are five or six days that really count. All the others just make volume'. It is on those 'just volume' days that entrepreneurial families work hard to be ready when uncertainty and crises arise on those five or six.

Bernardo Bertoldi (Lecturer in Family Business Strategy - University of Turin -bernardo.bertoldi@unito.it)