United Kingdom towards the vote

The Great Escape: 79 Tory MPs will not stand again

Discontented with the early elections, called for 4 July, and discouraged by the polls, they leave known and lesser known faces

30 May 2024

Sunak ottimista: "I Tories possono vincere le prossime elezioni"

3' min read

One thing is certain ahead of the 4 July general election in Great Britain: in the Westminster Parliament, which was dissolved today, Thursday 30 May, there will be many new faces after the vote. Not only because, if the predictions of all the polls turn out to be correct, the opposition Labour Party will win, gaining hundreds of seats and the right to form a new government.

Cloak in sight for the Tories

The most radical change will take place within the ranks of the Conservatives. Projections based on the latest polls are of a collapse of the Tories from the current 344 seats to 92, while Labour would rise from the current 205 to 479, surpassing the performance of the party led by Tony Blair in 1997 - an all-time record of 418 seats, unbeaten to date.

Anticipating defeat, 75 Conservative MPs - an unprecedented number at the time - had thrown in the towel before the vote. This year, the exodus from the party is even more dramatic: 78 Tories have given up standing for election, and more are expected to follow suit in the coming weeks.

Veterans in retreat

Among the Tories who have had enough are party veterans such asTheresa May, former premier; Michael Gove, former deputy prime minister and current housing minister; Matt Hancock, former health minister during the pandemic, and Dominic Raab, former deputy prime minister. And there are also new recruits, MPs who had only been elected in 2019, such as Dehenna Davison, 30, and Nicola Richards, 29, who decided to leave politics after five turbulent years of scandal and crisis.

Cynics recalled the saying that rats run away from the sinking ship, a comparison strangely evoked by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who, immediately after announcing the election date, thoughtfully went to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast, the shipyards from which the ill-fated liner had departed, making photographers happy.

The reasons for leaving are diverse: some MPs are certain to lose their seats and prefer to leave before defeat, veterans want to end a long career with their heads held high, young people are disappointed with politics and want to do something else with their lives and perhaps earn more money. Also contributing to the exodus is the fact that the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, intends to ban the possibility of a second job for MPs if elected, in the belief that they should concentrate on politics and their constituency.

Gb, deputato Tory torna dopo le amputazioni: tributo della Camera dei Comuni

The Tories' ranks have already been reduced by the forced resignation of a number of MPs engulfed by scandals of various kinds - financial and sexual - and more recently by the defection of an MP who switched to the Reform Party and two other MPs who chose the Labour Party.

By 7 June, the parties have to submit their list of candidates and the Tories admitted that they are still looking for 158 people ready to represent the party.

Little time to catch up with Labour

Apparently there are many ministers, undersecretaries and MPs who are deeply unhappy with the PM's surprise decision to go to a vote earlier than planned, in the summer, without consulting them and with less than six weeks to close the more than 20-point gap separating them from Labour in the polls. Sunak had only discussed this with the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt. Everyone else, including former Prime Minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron, was caught off guard and did not like it.

The exodus of Tories MPs, however remarkable, is not a record: in 2010, after 13 years of Labour government, as many as 100 MPs from that party had left, anticipating defeat, which punctually arrived.

In a few weeks we will know whether history will repeat itself.