Kick-off session

The growth issue at the centre of the Chinese Communist Party Plenum

Agenda dominated by the economy, in a meeting that opened with the third quarter GDP figure slowing to 4.8 per cent

by Rita Fatiguso

Un agente di polizia è di guardia in Piazza Tienanmen a Pechino, che ospita il quarto plenum del Comitato centrale del Partito comunista cinese (Pcc)

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

On the 370 members of the Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, in conclave from yesterday, Monday, until Thursday 23 October to examine the outlines of the next Five-Year Plan 2026-2030, came the very bad news of the GDP slowdown in the third quarter.

Official data show that the gross domestic product grew by 4.8% in the July-September period, a slowdown compared to the 5.2% in the second quarter, in line with analysts' expectations of a more moderate increase of just 4.8%. Consumption slowed down, "only" at +4.4%, industrial production (+6.5%) was mainly driven by technology, robotics and electric vehicles in the lead, while real estate fell (-13.9%), despite state aid.

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The Fourth Plenum must recognise that China's economic growth is the problem and that it is no coincidence at all that the agenda for these four days is secret,

is almost entirely economic, in fact with a departure from tradition the topic of the Plan was brought forward from the Fifth to the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Party Congress.

In the last quarter, in line with expectations, the data also impacted trade tensions that hurt Chinese demand, despite the excellent 8.5% export performance in September.

The economic cut will have to be linked to the domestic industrialisation plan, that 10-year Made in China 2025 plan that, operationally, served to translate theory into practice.

But the 370 delegates have to evaluate the stimulus plan for the next five years that is needed precisely to support the restart against slowing growth, the housing crisis, deflationary pressures and the tariff war raging with the US.

The Fourth Plenum is already embracing the concept of strategic resilience, repeatedly reiterated in speeches and articles in the state media, which can be translated into an idea of development that aims not only to grow GDP but also to ensure national security and the sustainability of the system.

In practice, it is about that concept of high quality development that was at the very core of Made in China 2025 and that translates into high quality development that ensures the country's independence and autonomy from any external forces. The shift away from the now failing real estate and infrastructure investments is taken for granted even though weak domestic demand, which creates deflation and overcapacity, is working against this shift.

In addition to the economy, the Plenum must resolve the issue of strengthening authority and discipline within the Party these days.

The official agenda includes discussion on how to improve the system of socialism and the style of government, but in reality very important boxes will have to be filled in after the beheading of the top Defence leadership. Nine high-ranking military personnel are under investigation and expelled from the party just days before the opening of the Assizes in a raid that evoked the dark years of the Cultural Revolution.

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