The major flops of new mobility: from inaccurate predictions to exaggerated hype

Why are there so many flops in the world of cars and mobility? Not flops involving individual brands or projects – which would simply be a sign of vibrant activity. No, no, here we’re talking about entire new mobility systems that have hit a brick wall. Who says so? Gianluca Di Loreto, a partner at Bain, with a kind of intellectual honesty not typically found amongst the big names in consultancy – who are always quick to absolve themselves when the pudding doesn’t live up to the recipe. For several months now, he has been taking centre stage, listing all those changes that were heralded as certain and imminent.

From online car sales to the Segway we were all supposed to use, from car-sharing to scooters, right through to the mother of all innovations: the battery-powered car. There are two main reasons for these flops. One: the new product does not improve the user experience compared to the existing ones it was intended to replace. This was the case with online car sales, Segways and electric cars. Two: a lack of political or public will to support the new product. This is the case with car-sharing, which never progressed beyond the experimental phase involving thousands of vehicles to the tens of thousands needed to eliminate second cars. But it is also the case with kick scooters, which have been held back by local authorities who refuse to acknowledge their dangers and the accidents they cause.

However, marketing is littered with failures, the number of which far exceeds that of successes, and each has its own causes. Viewed individually, they are nothing out of the ordinary. Taken together, however, a couple of pertinent questions arise. Why such a concentration of flops in a single sector – that of personal mobility – and in such a short space of time? Why such slowness and reluctance to acknowledge that consumers have rejected them? To find the answers, we need to look beyond individual cases and examine the wider social context that initially welcomed the announcements but then failed to buy the products.

Underlying this is a deep-seated aversion to the current form of private transport: the car. A negative symbol for many, it is always readily criticised but never defended with sufficient vigour.

Let us add the unfounded equation of the ‘new’ with the ‘best’, which stems from a widespread desire for a future different from the present. Historically, a better future meant waiting for the afterlife, but now the West’s sense of power demands it here and now. Hence the distortion of reality to suit ideology.