La manovra 2025

The Point

The manoeuvre and the halo of politics

If all goes well, the real value of the manoeuvre will be the unwritten value of the low spread. Which in any case means confidence

14 October 2024

Il ministro dell’Economia Giancarlo Giorgetti alla Camera dei deputati durante il voto sul Piano strutturale di bilancio di medio termine 2025-2029. (Foto Roberto Monaldo / LaPresse)

2' min read

If it were not for the fact that it is accompanied by an outsized halo of political controversy, the manoeuvre for 2025 that Giancarlo Giorgetti is putting together would be an exercise that is not ordinary but certainly less anxiety-provoking.

The amount will be 25 billion and the bulk will be used to definitively finance the cut in contributions for workers with incomes up to 40 thousand euro (no longer 35 thousand) in order to increase real wages. An operation that will also pass through the confirmation of the revision of the Irpef rates, again for lower incomes.

Total cost 14 billion.

More money is sought for healthcare, which is expected to reach over 7 billion in final funding.

Some resources will also go to the Inps to try to increase the amount of minimum pensions, albeit infinitesimally.

Then there are the unavoidable expenses, starting with those for the international missions that are so sensitive in these times of war.

And there is the great expectation for the revenue that the amnesty for VAT numbers will provide, about which there is, however, great apprehension in the Treasury. From the mythical fight against evasion even the government of amnesties expects a lot and does not know how it will turn out.

Giorgetti is looking for resources in the cuts to the ministries, which will have to contribute around 3 billion, but already have to realise 1.2 billion this year and 1.5 billion next year as per old commitments (however, it is worth remembering that ordinary public spending is around 1 trillion a year).

And he also seeks input from the banks that are already gearing up.

If all this goes through, the real value of the manoeuvre will be the unwritten value of the low spread. Which in any case means confidence.