Global Scenarios

The new role of the EU, leading countries in rapid transformation

(Adobe Stock)

3' min read

3' min read

Undoubtedly, the performance staged in Washington on 18 August, with the five leaders of the major European countries, the president of the Commission and the secretary of NATO summoned to accompany Zelensky to Trump's court, constituted a humiliation for our pro-European sensibilities, recognising in it once again the US president's explicit desire not to give recognition to the European Union as an equal partner in dealing with this new phase of the global conflict that has opened in Ukraine.

However, we cannot attribute the advantage of surrendering to those who want to scuttle what remains of European unity; instead, we must look for opportunities for the next moves in that situation as well. The world is in fact much bigger than the Oval Office of the White House, and everything suggests that the game that has opened in recent days is in its early stages.

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First of all, after the meeting with European leaders, Trump had to tighten the leash on Orban, inducing him to withdraw his veto on Ukraine's entry into the European Union, a fact that represents an indirect recognition of the EU in a post-war period that will be crucial above all for Europe itself. In fact, it is clear from Washington that the countries of the Old Continent will have to take responsibility not only for security but also for the reconstruction of Ukraine, following the end of the conflict, which, despite the words spoken in Alaska, still seems far away, but which must be prepared as of now.

Trump, on the other hand, has on his neck the heavy breath of the sovereignist ghosts he himself evoked, who in the name of America First are calling for no more national resources to be dispersed outside the borders of their homeland and therefore for Ukraine to be abandoned, entrusting its possible developments to the Europeans. In reality, this is the opportunity that opens up in front of the whole of Europe: after almost twenty years of stagnation, the European Union can take charge of a great project that, combining a long-term political vision, can reactivate the economy of the Continent, focusing its financial, technological and human resources towards a large-scale joint action.

In this sense, the investments needed for the possible reconstruction of Ukraine should be estimated right away, but also a European relaunch, which must certainly achieve autonomy in the area of military security - and here I recall that the first project of European unity was the European Defence Community in the early 1950s - but must have as its goal the strengthening of Europe's digital industry and its artificial intelligence developments, as already indicated in the Draghi Report and even earlier foreshadowed by the Letta Report.

This perspective intersects with the dynamics that can be glimpsed far beyond the Trumpian cries. The president of the United States and the president of post-Soviet Russia play loudly to recognise each other as the only great powers, even though they are aware of the fragility of each other's domestic economies. What is striking is the silence of China, which, on the other hand, is strengthening day by day as a technological power, and the cautiousness of India, whose power to attract even large high-tech companies is growing. Equally striking is Turkey's attention, not only towards the Mediterranean but also towards that immense world of the 'stans' - from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - today off the western radar, but relevant in the future balances, both for the raw materials in which they are rich, but also for their development potential.

The European Union, which Trump does not recognise as an ally, but which he has identified as an unfaithful adversary to be punished with his sanctions, has the opportunity to become a reference point for rapidly changing worlds, as well as for Africa, which cannot be abandoned to Chinese interests overseen by Russian mercenary troops.

This Europe, which, with a renewed governance, can extend from the Atlantic to the Ukraine, can be the pivot of a new global growth, which does not accept to move within the narrow limits imposed by the old leader who sits today in the Oval Office, old not only in years but also in a vision, already a prisoner of the populisms he has unleashed in recent years. It is precisely in this situation, apparently punitive for Europe, that the opportunities for a new development must be sought, in which a renewed Union can be the bearer of those values of democracy and equality, which were the basis of the design of our founding fathers.

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