The Nlt market paradox: good data but weak demand

After eight months the car market has a hole of 50 thousand cars, which without rent-a-car would be 76 thousand. But apart from the rent-a-car that moves little from one year to the next, what's in it for long-term rental purchases? Squinting, that's what.

Independent car rental companies, mostly bank-owned, are 23 thousand plates behind. Instead, captive companies, which answer to manufacturers, bought 46 thousand more cars, which is a respectable plus 52 per cent compared to the first eight months of 2024. It may well be that of the 65,000 private individuals who did not buy a car, compared to last year, 46,000 were thinking of renting one and, since their preferred interlocutor is the dealer, ended up signing a proposal from the captive rental company. For goodness sake, anything is possible. But is it also probable? Bearing in mind that independent hire companies are by now well established in the dealer network, and so it would be strange if they had not intercepted a good slice of these customers, or presumed such, and above all that the entire Nlt fleet in the hands of private individuals, tax codes and VAT numbers, was last year less than 170,000 vehicles and up by just 6,000 units on 2023, it seems at least unlikely that those 46,000 cars are all circulating on the road. Also in light of the extreme need of car manufacturers to register certain cars in order to dodge the Cafe fines for which they are making provisions in their budgets, many believe that those registrations are km0s parked on forecourts that the network can no longer absorb.

Having explained the Nlt squint, let's try to understand the causes of this probable slowdown in demand, which is reflected not so much in the circulating fleet as in registrations: as if to say, customers have the car and pay the fee, they just don't place the order to replace it.

The main defendant is the new fringe benefit regime. According to Aniasa, the rental association, this is an unfortunate regulation, 'which has become a hidden tariffs on the entire automotive supply chain. Car manufacturers, rental companies, client companies, drivers, fleet and mobility managers, all working together on which regime to apply. And yes, because in 2025 as many as three different car taxation regimes may be applied. A complication caused by incongruous environmental policies, which has led almost 50,000 drivers to request the extension of their expiring contracts, with less revenue for the state and local authorities'.

There is no doubt, therefore, that the blizzard has, as always, brought confusion and cooled business. However, the dialogue remains open and the government itself, through the mouth of its vice-premier Salvini, said at a conference of operators that the legislation would need revision. The president of Aniasa, Alberto Viano, considers it necessary and expects it, to make the fringe benefit more sustainable and consistent with the ecological transition. "The previous regime in force from 2019 was based, in a perspective of technological neutrality, on the level of CO2 emissions, rewarding those who pollute less, but without excessively penalising those who cover more kilometres for work needs with endothermic-powered cars, even of small cubic capacity," explained Viano. "Today, those who drive a 150,000-euro electric supercar have a tax advantage of over 2,500 euros a year, while those who have a petrol or hybrid Panda pay 1,200 euros in Irpef, 66% more than in 2024.