The North-East in the Balance and the Artificial Intelligence Variable
We live in a continuous flow of transitions. We have not yet fully grasped the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution', and already the Fifth with its innovations is appearing.
3' min read
3' min read
We live in a continuous flow of transitions. We have not yet fully grasped the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution', but already the Fifth is appearing with its innovations. We are in the early stages of the Twin Transitions (digital and environmental) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is breaking through. How do the two North-Eastern regions, Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, present themselves at the Twin Transitions? The fourth edition of 'MutaMenti' (Marsilio, promoted by BCC Pordenonese and Monsile and the three Federations of BCCs in Veneto, the Northeast and Friuli Venezia Giulia) looked at the process of transitions and the advent of AI in the two regions. The overall result is of a North-East balanced between aspects that slow down the processes and others, instead, that push towards an acceleration.
Among the aspects holding back transitions, the demographic issue is the central one. In the coming years, in the absence of migration, the ratio of the population over 65 to the working-age population (20-64) in Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia will grow rapidly. Among the employed in 2004 young people (15-34) out of the total number of active persons (15-64) accounted for 36%, while those aged 50-64 accounted for 19%. Twenty years later (2023) the ratio is reversed: young people are only 24%, while seniors rise to 38%. A literal reversal that constitutes a slowdown in innovation processes.
On the human capital front, on the one hand, there are only three university courses planned (2024/2025) in the fields of digital and AI in the universities of the North East in Veneto and five in Friuli Venezia Giulia. On the other hand, graduates in the two regions show a higher predisposition to mobility towards a European state than the national average (48.1%): in Padua it is 50.3%, in Ca' Foscari 53.1%, in Trieste 54.4%. A lower educational offer in the areas of digital and AI is counterbalanced by a higher propensity of young people to move to other European states.
Looking at the economic picture, 2024 confirms weak growth. Added to this is a drop in exports (Germany: -5.6%). The combination of these conditions should result in closing the year with GDP growth in Friuli-Venezia Giulia of 0.7% and in Veneto of 0.8%.
To counterbalance the set of critical issues, there are just as many positive signs. In Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, technical courses of education are more attractive than high school ones, compared to the national average: while in Italy 51.7% of the younger generation enrols in high schools and 31.5% in technical courses (2022/23), in Veneto high school students stand at 44.6% and technical students at 37.8%; in Friuli Venezia Giulia the former are 48% and the latter 37.1%.
