The regional elections ended 3-3 but the centre-left took more votes. Decaro and Fico also chosen by centre-right voters

The regional elections closed with a substantial draw: three regions (Marche, Veneto and Calabria) to the centre-right and three regions (Tuscany, Puglia and Campania) to the centre-left. But how many votes did the two coalitions take? The centre-right won 3,836,591 preferences while the centre-left took home 4,118,640. This is almost 300,000 more votes for the wide field.

'This surplus of votes for the centre-left,' explains pollster Antonio Noto, 'is linked to the fact that the centre-left won the most populous regions. But the lead is indisputable because it could have been the centre-right that won them and it did not'. Veneto and Apulia are the two regions where, based on the absolute number of votes, the centre-right and centre-left have overwhelmed their opponents: in Veneto the centre-right has obtained over 1,200,000 votes against the centre-left's 540,000; in Apulia the centre-left has collected over 900,000 votes while the centre-right has stopped at 500,000.

The flow analysis carried out by the Noto Sondaggi Institute also highlights the shift of some votes from the centre-right to the centre-left. While in Veneto there are no significant transfers of votes from one coalition to the other, in Campania 20% of those who had voted centre-right at the European elections in 2024 moved to the centre-left by voting Roberto Fico at the regional elections.

This dynamic is even greater in Apulia, where 30% of those who had voted centre-right in the most recent election - the European elections 2024 - voted for the centre-left, choosing Antonio Decaro as their candidate for governor. 'As for abstention,' explains Antonio Noto, 'it affected both sides equally. If it had not been there, the election result would not have changed'.