The spectre of duties reshapes exports: focus on Asia
In a rapidly changing scenario dominated by uncertainty, eyes on the Gate countries and Japan
4' min read
4' min read
From our correspondent
NEW DELHI - After Donald Trump's surreal ballet of announcements and backtracking on tariffs, it is clear that there is new normal in world trade and that its hallmark is uncertainty. The epicentre of this crisis is the US, but the continent where the reverberations will be felt most strongly is Asia. Trump's big target of course is China, but not even the US's major political and military allies in the region - Japan, South Korea, Thailand and India - are certain to be spared. Neither are those countries with perhaps less close ties - think Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos - but which after the first Trump administration's tariffs have intercepted a large part of Chinese production and integrated with the US economy.
The end result could be a redrawing of how goods are produced and how the countries targeted by the US administration trade with each other. From this point of view, the most interesting case at the moment seems to be India. Until a few weeks ago, there was little or no indication that India would soon give up the tariff belt with which it has been protecting some of its local industries from foreign competition for decades. Today New Delhi has reopened negotiations on free trade treaties with the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. And these are not the negotiations of the pre-Trump era - when the pace was more languid than a cricket test match and vetoes were not counted - but urgent negotiations; to be closed within months, not years; possibly without excluding crucial sectors of the economy, such as the automotive industry.
That the world has changed also seems to have been realised by the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, who in recent weeks have put aside old divisions to return to dialogue first at the level of foreign ministers and then of economic ministers about the need to strengthen trade and cooperation. India and China, two historical adversaries, are also gradually trying to normalise their relations after the big chill following the border incidents of 2020-21. Hong Kong is also actively seeking new trading partners.
High Potential Economies
.In a rapidly changing scenario, the Sace Growth Map presented in recent weeks identified the so-called Gate (Growing, ambitious, transforming and entrepreneurial) countries as key markets. High-potential economies that can open doors to further regional opportunities. In Asia we are talking about countries such as China, India, Vietnam and Singapore. These are often where the best non-EU export performance was observed in 2024. The Asean countries, for example, where Italian exports increased by 11%, with Vietnam seeing growth of 25%.
