Opinions

The two faces of a possible Italian industrial policy

3' min read

3' min read

Making industrial policy does not only mean distributing incentives but, first of all, knowing the country's production potential: in which sectors, with which companies, in which territories. Yet, all too often, industrial policy strategies are disconnected from a concrete map of the real economy.

A new study carried out by the Luiss Hub for New Industrial Policy (LUHNIP), in collaboration with the Centro Studi Guglielmo Tagliacarne, attempts to fill this gap with an analysis of the microeconomic characteristics of Italian companies, in order to identify not only the strengths already consolidated, but also the potential ones, for an industrial policy capable of lasting over time.

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Let's start with exports. Out of around 330,000 manufacturing companies, only 17 per cent export on a stable basis. But they are the most solid, innovative and integrated part of the Italian industrial system. Eighty per cent of manufacturing exports are concentrated in the North, with 70 per cent of companies exporting, with different specialisations: the North-East - with Veneto and Emilia-Romagna in the lead - excels in sectors with a global comparative advantage (mechanics, components, equipment); the North-West, on the other hand, dominates in sectors with a higher absolute export value, such as pharmaceuticals, metals and automotive.

These exporting companies are on average eight times larger than the others, sell in more than ten markets and often operate in high quality niches. They are also more resilient: those who remain permanently in foreign markets are twice as likely to develop patents and employ a significantly higher proportion of science graduates. In short, they are companies that are already accustomed to international competition and often find their peaks in the solid patrol of medium-sized companies with a district matrix.

A second front, often overlooked, is that of high-growth enterprises. Between 2019 and 2022-at the height of the pandemic and at the beginning of the energy crisis-these enterprises, while representing only one per cent of the total, generated 81 per cent of the new employment created by Italian companies.

High-growth companies are more evenly distributed across the territory and 'reverse stereotypes'. In relative terms, there are more of them in the south than in the north-east, concentrated in light manufacturing, local services, logistics and IT services. Not only start-ups: more than half are over ten years old. And while they patent less than established companies, when they do they are more often concentrated in technologies considered strategic for the European Union, particularly green and low-emission technologies. They have fewer graduates on average, but those in STEM disciplines weigh more. They are silent but dynamic companies.

This double portrait - on the one hand the Italy that exports, on the other the Italy that grows - gives concrete hints for a new industrial policy. First of all, it points out a risk: 'horizontal' policies are not neutral but instead only strengthen those who are already strong. They can be a way of not choosing. Without targeted interventions, however, there is a risk of leaving behind territories and sectors that have potential but need accompaniment and vision. Secondly, in a country as heterogeneous as ours, two complementary strategies are needed: strengthening the already consolidated excellences, especially in the North, and cultivating new specialisation paths in the Centre and South, even outside the traditional industrial poles. This means making choices on development priorities (including transversal ones), while also integrating supply chain policies with others on players with potential.

High-growth companies are a strategic asset for rethinking the priorities of public intervention: widespread, versatile, responsive, sectorally differentiated. But today, almost no policy recognises them as a category. Instead, they should be identified, listened to and supported. Not only with incentives, but also with tools for guidance, training, credit and administrative reinforcement.

An industrial policy should distinguish between what needs to be consolidated and what needs to be brought out. The data to do this are there. It is now up to policy to decide whether and how to use them.

Donato Di Carlo - LSE & LUHNIP

Gaetano Fausto Esposito Director Centro Studi Guglielmo Tagliacarne

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