The weight of coalition geometries: compatibility favours the centre-right

The road to the 2027 general election is paved with unknowns, from electoral law to the leadership of the wide field, but one certainty exists: coalitions are never the algebraic sum of the parties that make them up. Because the entry or exit of a political force from the alliance can produce a multiplier or dispersion effect on consensus, changing the perception of the electorate and, consequently, the final result. Probing the impact of different coalition geometries is a Youtrend survey that Il Sole 24 Ore is able to anticipate. Each of the 1,500 respondents was asked whether they would confirm their vote in the event of an electoral alliance between their party and each of the others. Based on this measure of mutual compatibility between different forces, Youtrend drew up four coalition scenarios, from which one basic element emerges: the centre-right starts off with an advantage, but the margin narrows considerably when the progressive camp manages to hold all its components together. To put it another way, the real game will be played on the ability of each leader to keep his or her electorate within alliances that necessarily dilute identities.

The dry sum of the list votes of the Youtrend/Agi Supermedia in today's most plausible coalition scenario means that the parties of the progressive camp (Pd, M5S, Avs, Italia Viva and +Europa) would be ahead by a narrow margin with 45.5%, compared to the centre-right's total of 44.9% (Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia, Lega and Noi Moderati). But if the compatibility of the respective electorates is also taken into account, the outcome is reversed: the broad camp would lose 1.5%, dropping to 44%, with voters leaving the Five Star and the centrists, while the centre-right, on the strength of a more consolidated experience of cohabitation, would rise to 45.5%. A reversal that the Stabilicum would further strengthen, thanks to the majority prize.

Those who would be most affected by joining the coalition is Giuseppe Conte's Movement: if it ran independently it would recover two points (from 11.7% to 13.8%). The alliance entails a direct electoral cost for the Five Stars: this means that in the event that the majority prize (or victory in a good number of constituencies) should appear out of reach for the wide field, a change in positioning could be worth considering. "The M5S electorate has long seen Pd and Matteo Renzi as adversaries," notes Youtrend director Lorenzo Pregliasco. "On the other hand, it was seen that at the regionals, especially when the presidential candidate was not expressed by the Movement, an important share of voters ended up not voting for the wide field. Certainly, if the Rosatellum were to remain in force, the M5S allied with Elly Schlein's Pd and Renzi's could recover a few elected people in the constituencies'.

The third scenario contemplates the entry of Azione into the centre-right coalition: the aggregate would grow to 47.4% (over two points more than the base scenario), but at the expense of Carlo Calenda's party, which would collapse to 1.9% against the 3.4% recorded by the list alone. 'Part of Azione's appeal,' Pregliasco points out, 'derives precisely from being at the centre of the political offer and not recognising itself in the two main alignments. A part of the shareholder voters would not appreciate the move to the right. And the progressive camp would take advantage of this, rising 1.5 points to 45.5 per cent.

If Futuro Nazionale were to join the centre-right coalition, the aggregate would reach its maximum: 48.4 per cent, more than three points above the progressive camp. But even in this case it would be the Vanaccians who would lose consensus, from the estimated 3.9 per cent if they ran alone to 2.7 per cent. As Pregliasco explains, 'Futuro Nazionale's basin would be drained, because outside the poles it would be able to fill up more with a non-aligned and anti-system electorate that does not want to ally itself with the governing centre-right'.