The decline of California’s vineyards continues, with a further 20,000 hectares lost in 2026
Producers’ associations estimate a further 11 per cent reduction in the US’s main wine-growing region, due to grubbing-up and abandonment. Surplus production and weak demand are weighing heavily on the sector.
Just over 439,000 acres of vineyards, equivalent to approximately 177,700 hectares. This is the ‘standing acreage’ at the start of August 2026, as estimated by the California Association of Winegrape Growers (CAWG), in collaboration with the state’s main winegrowers’ and producers’ associations. The figure confirms a further reduction in the area under vine in the US’s leading wine-producing region, with an 11 per cent decline compared with last year. According to the new figures, compiled as part of the ‘California Winegrape Mapping’ project – which utilises remote sensing, AI and ground surveys – over 47,000 acres, equivalent to approximately 19,100 hectares, have been removed from the Californian vineyard register.
A decline attributable to new plantings and abandoned vineyards, against a backdrop of structurally weaker demand and a persistent imbalance caused by a supply of wines and grapes that exceeds the market’s capacity to absorb them. The surplus is increasing pressure on company balance sheets and exacerbating the phenomenon of overstocking – analysts note – leading to frequent write-downs of assets.
The wine market is also being affected by the growing polarisation of spending. The so-called K-shaped economy – as experts explain – is widening the gap between different consumer groups and, consequently, between the segments that make up the diverse range of local wines. The categories most at risk are, above all, the mid-range and entry-level segments, where increased promotional and competitive pressure tends to exacerbate imbalances and price erosion.
This weakness is also confirmed by estimates from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which project the US wine market in 2025 to be around 329 million cases (-2 per cent year-on-year), with a turnover of approximately 74.3 billion dollars, down by 1.6 per cent. Moreover, the correction phase is not yet over. According to SVB’s assessments, the contraction is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, into 2026, whilst the market could hit bottom between 2027 and 2028, before beginning a period of stabilisation and a predictable recovery.
