Istat

This is how we approach retirement at 70 for both men and women

The impact of the increase in life expectancy estimated by the State General Accounting Office that the retirement age will touch 70 in 2067

by Giorgio Pogliotti

21 October 2025

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

In 2050, more than one in three will be over 65 years old
Increasing activity rate of the senior population

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The age requirement for access to old age retirement in 2050 will rise to 68 years and 11 months for men and women (from 67 years today) and will reach 70 years in 2067.

The forecasts elaborated with the models of the Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, shown in the labour force forecasts to 2050 by ISTAT, highlight the impact of the progressive ageing of the population, the lengthening of the average life expectancy and the gradual raising of the retirement age.

By 2050, more than one in three will be over 65

The effects of demographic winter will continue to be felt in the coming decades, considering that the share of the elderly aged 65 and over in the total population could increase from less than one in four (24.3%) in 2024 to more than one in three in 2050 (34.6%).

In the same time frame, the share of 15-64 year olds will fall to 54.3 per cent from 63.5 per cent in 2024.

This trend will be due to the very large generations born in the baby-boom years who will populate the age groups between 65 and 74 between 2025 and 2039. From 2040 onwards, the cohorts that will turn 65 to 74 are those born from the mid-1970s onwards, which are fewer in number than the previous ones.

Life expectancy at birth is projected to increase for both sexes: according to the median scenario in 2050 it will reach 84.3 years for males (up from 81.7 in 2024) and 87.8 years for females (up from 85.6 in 2024). In addition, life expectancy at age 65 in 2050 could increase for men to 21.5 years (up from 19.8 in 2024) and for women to 24.4 years (up from 22.7 in 2024). The increase in survival is generally accompanied by a general improvement in health.

The activity rate of the senior population is growing

Together with the increase in the weight of the senior population, another phenomenon predicted by Istat is the increase in the labour market participation of people of mature and old age. Between 2024 and 2050, the activity rate in the 55-64 age group would rise from 61% to 70%. The activity rate in the 65-74 age group could also rise from 11% in 2024 to 16% in 2050.

The activity rate extended to the age group 15-74 years could thus reach 62% in 2050 (an increase of four percentage points from 58% in 2024). For women, the growth would be 5.6 percentage points, reaching 55% in 2050. Men, with a smaller increase of 1.8 percentage points, would reach an activity rate of 68.3% in 2050. A large gender gap thus remains.

Compared to what has been seen for the population aged 15-64, extending the age up to 75 years shows different trends in the absolute values of active and inactive by gender. Although female participation will remain lower than that of men throughout the period (as for 15-64 year olds), an overtaking of the active female population over the inactive is expected around 2038. The overtaking is due to the baby boom generations, who in 2024 are still active (being between 50 and 64 years old), in 2050, aged 76 to 90 years old, will have left the labour market (due to retirement or death).

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