Budget Law: Impacts of the new tax rates on income and companies

Substitute taxes, on the other hand, increase the rate of growth by EUR 2.2 billion, in a balance that remains positive by EUR 9.75 billion and is explained by many of the measures now being examined by the Senate, which, for example, remove contractual increases for private sector workers with incomes of up to EUR 28,000, or a share of ancillary salaries for public employees earning up to EUR 50,000, from the taxable amount for Irpef, and in exchange ask for a flat tax (with the 'substitute', in fact), which is lighter than the ordinary one. The cut in the second rate does the rest, in a chapter that, numbers in hand, is the true heart of the entire manoeuvre.

But nothing is free, especially in a country that has the second largest public debt in Europe in relation to GDP (but for the primacy it is only a matter of time, not even too long) and has to adhere to a strict account trajectory agreed with Brussels. As well as giving, consequently, the manoeuvre demands.

This is well shown by the IRES line, which will be strengthened by EUR 2.3 billion next year, EUR 3.1 billion in 2027, while in 2028 the difference with respect to the trend is reduced to EUR 614 million. This is where part of the greater structural revenues requested from the banks, which are also called upon to anticipate new resources with the further postponement of deferred tax credits, but also the bill presented to companies, for example by the change of course on the taxation of dividends contested by Forza Italia, are to be found. The three-year horizon excludes a large part of the discounts granted to companies that invest from the return of the 'hyper' and 'super' depreciation, which are to be discounted over a longer time span.

The 1.6 billion in increased VAT revenue is due to the anti-evasion rules introduced with the sprint controls thanks to the cross-referencing of data from electronic invoicing, telematic receipts and periodic settlements (Lipe). The environmental label accompanies the 'realignment' of excise duties between petrol (they will go down) and diesel (they will go up), which will bring in 1.7 billion between 2026 and 2028 thanks to the greater diffusion of diesel engines. The 1.5 billion in new revenue generated by tobacco and similar products could instead be motivated by noble reasons of health protection.

But at the tobacconist's as at the petrol station, it is the cover-ups that dictate the law. Because every choice has a cost, even if in the years of the easy deficit the opposite was pretended.