Three years of Meloni in power. Hers is the third longest government: balance sheet and prospects

It is three years today since the general election that brought the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia to the government of the Republic for the first time. "Three years that seem like ten," commented from New York on 24 September, on the sidelines of the 80th UN General Assembly, the helmswoman of the turnaround: Giorgia Meloni, the first Prime Minister who now boasts the milestone of the third longest-lasting Executive in Italy, after Silvio Berlusconi's fourth and second, at least if we look at the actual days that in mid-September exceeded the 1,058 of the Craxi Government.

The ballot box on 25 September 2022 marked the return of the supremacy of politics over the technical-institutional imprint of Mario Draghi's government, which lasted twenty months, just long enough to secure the Pnrr and relaunch the country after the darkness of the pandemic. The vote has rewarded Fdi, the only party, born from the ashes of the National Alliance and before that the MSI, which had remained in opposition during the Draghi era and which had never before risen to lead the country. Faithful allies, for now, are Forza Italia's Azzurri and the Leghists, led respectively by deputy prime minister Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini. Still weak is the opposition front, divided and competing: one of the factors of the premier's success and popularity so far.

From the stage of a rally in Ancona a few days ago, Meloni listed the long series of disproved forecasts, from the spread 'at the lowest level in the last 15 years' to employment growing by about a million since October 2022, with the record rate ofemployment in the South. The utmost prudence has marked the management of the public accounts so far, also thanks to the cautious navigation of the Lega Nord Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who is very attentive to the perception of the markets in the presence of a public debt that remains among the highest in Europe and is expected to close 2025 just above 3,080 billion.

More disappointing are the results in terms of GDP: for 2025 and 2026, according to OECD estimates, it should stand at +0.6 per cent. The government forecasts +0.5 per cent for this year. The asphyxiated growth is weighed down by the dynamics of industrial production and energy prices: Meloni again acknowledged that 'they are an absolute priority' and promised a 'structural' intervention to lower them. Together with 'various initiatives to continue helping companies that invest and support their work: we are focusing on this for the budget law'.

The three-year period saw a drastic worsening of the international picture: the war in Ukraine was compounded by the Israel-Hamas conflict. And the advent of the second Trump presidency in the United States has further upset already precarious balances, forcing Italy into a complicated game of balancing acts. Meloni continues to mediate between the opposing positions of her deputies, i.e. between Tajani's no-ifs-and-buts Euro-Atlanticism and Salvini's pro-Russian impulses, who in turn is suffering the consequences of an increasingly 'vannaccizzato' party. Above all, the premier has decided never to distance herself from US President Donald Trump in the name of the unity of the West. Although the costs of the 15% tariffs agreement with the EU for our production system are all yet to be calculated.