Conclave begins, voting in the Sistine Chapel: it will be head-to-head between a 'curial' and a 'pastor'

The door of the Sistine Chapel closes. The 133 cardinal electors from the evening of 7 May are called to the greatest task of a cardinal, to elect the new Pope. Since Francis died, the focus has been on a few cardinals who are more prominent, better known, more authoritative, and therefore able to attract consensus, also because for the most part the cardinals do not know each other. The names are in fact many more than at other times, certainly more than in 2013 and even more than in 2005. This time the 'rose' - only of a media nature - is divided between 'curial' cardinals, who therefore have top positions in the Roman Curia, and 'pastors', archbishops of dioceses. The history of the Church has seen cardinals from different backgrounds ascend to the throne of Peter: for example, Joseph Ratzinger had been Prefect of the Doctrine of the Faith for many years, hence 'curial', but before being called to Rome he had been Archbishop of Munich. Eugenio Pacelli, on the other hand, had never been bishop of a diocese, but apostolic nuncio and then Secretary of State, and Paul VI had long been a senior figure in the Curia and then sent to Milan, which was the turning point for his subsequent election. The novelty of 2025 is that one of the most important names for the election is that of Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State since 2013, a career diplomat, and has never held office in a diocese, although his experience has put him in continuous contact with the grassroots.

"Curial" are also Luis Tagle, a Filipino, who nevertheless has years behind him at the head of the great diocese of Manila: since 2019 he has been at the head of the dicastery for the Evangelisation of Peoples, and for years he was president of Caritas Internationalis, which in 2022 Bergoglio decided to commission for mismanagement. Tagle has a strong social media presence and empathy, which puts him at an advantage, but not everyone thinks so. Moreover, he has a Chinese mother, and in the relations with Beijing, initiated by Francis after years of trying, this element is difficult to assess today, whether it is an advantage or not.

For several observers in the first ballot to be held on the evening of 7 May, these could be the two names on the ballot - Parolin and Tagle - along with a few others, such as Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishops' Conference and 'pastor', with a personal history among parishes, dioceses and the Community of Sant'Egidio. But another name that is growing in consensus is certainly that of Jean Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseilles, president of the French Episcopal Conference since a few weeks, born in Algiers, and a personal history spent above all in the pastoral care of migrants, so much so that Francis made his only trip to continental France in Marseilles. One note: it had been said that he did not speak Italian, but instead he celebrated Mass in Italian on Sunday 4 May.

Other potential names on the first ballot: Mario Grech, Maltese, Secretary General of the Synod (hence a curial), with a past as a bishop in his country: in the past he had had very harsh positions towards the Lgbtq+ world, but then retraced his steps and now the progressives do not mind. He could represent a mediation in the chaos should a stalemate be reached: he is openly supported by the Cardinal of Luxembourg Jean Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit, already very close to Francis . More complex is the picture towards Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Patriarch of Jerusalem, a past Custos of the Holy Land for the Franciscan friars. Young, 60 years old (a handicap, perhaps), he would be a candidate loved by all, but probably being the point of reference in the Holy Land especially now that there is an escalation in Gaza perhaps blocks him, but these are evaluations made with the parameters of civil politics, which in the Church jump. He would be welcomed by all, and in continuity with Francis, like the others, albeit with different styles. Another option, still in the same vein, could be that of Robert Francis Prevost, an American with French and Italian origins, of the Augustinian congregation, a long-time missionary and bishop in Peru, and by Francis' will at the head of the influential Congregation of Bishops. It would be a courageous choice; an American was hitherto considered completely excluded.

Many demands emerged from the congregations: Francis's reforms must go ahead (so we need someone who knows how to manage the curial processes), as well as the fight against abuse, economic transparency, reorganisation of the Curia, synodality, commitment to peace and care for creation. What is the profile being asked of the new Pope? "Pastor, teacher of humanity, capable of embodying the face of a Samaritan Church, close to the needs and wounds of humanity. In times marked by wars, violence and strong polarisations, the need is strongly felt for a spiritual guide who offers mercy, synodality and hope," the official note reads, "a figure who must be present, close, capable of acting as a bridge and guide, of favouring access to communion to a disoriented humanity marked by the crisis of the world order. A pastor close to people's concrete lives'. Some of the speeches addressed issues of a canonical nature, 'reflecting on the power of the Pope', whatever that means in concrete terms. But the issue of divisions within the Church was also addressed, and there have been many with Francis, on gays, divorcees, celibacy, women.