Market Day

Stock exchanges, Wall Street closes at record levels. Milan +0.6%.

Wall Street closed at record levels, with all 3 major indices at all-time highs: Dow Jones +0.88%, Nasdaq +1.40% and S&P 500 +1.17%.

by Giorgia Colucci and Stefania Blasioli

La Borsa, gli indici del 15 maggio 2024

4' min read

4' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The US inflation figure, in line with expectations, boosts hopes for a cut in the summer by the Fed. TheEuropean stock exchanges thus closed on a positive note, with the Milan Ftse Mib up 0.61% above 35,000 points, while Frankfurt, Paris and London, back in the record area since the beginning of the week, also closed today at all-time highs. Also fuelling the buying, explained Filippo Diodovich, Senior Market Strategist at IG Italy, were disappointing retail sales numbers, the main factor influencing US GDP. After declines in March, they remained stable in April, increasing "the likelihood that some Fed members will vote for an early cut in July," says the analyst. At the moment, the market predicts a 70 per cent probability of the first easing of the cost of money in the US in September.

On the European front, good news comes from the Eurostat estimates on inflation, expected in 2024 at 2.5% in the Eurozone and in 2025 falling to 2.1%, i.e. close to the ECB's target.

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Meanwhile, Wall Street closed at record levels, with all three major indices at all-time highs, after the latest consumer price report showed a drop in inflation in April. The Dow Jones rose 0.88% to 39,908 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.40% to 16,742.39 points while the S&P 500 advanced 1.17% to 5308.15 points.

Le Borse oggi, 15 maggio 2024

Wall Street up after weak Cpi inflation rise

Wall Street up after weak rise in CPI inflation. Consumer prices in the US rose 0.3 per cent from the previous month, following +0.4 per cent in March, against expectations for a confirmation of 0.4 per cent. The annual figure fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, in line with estimates. The 'core' figure, i.e. excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, after three consecutive increases of 0.4%. Compared to a year earlier, the 'core' figure rose by 3.6%, again in line with expectations, the smallest increase since April 2021. Energy prices rose by 2.6 per cent year-on-year, food prices by 2.2 per cent. On Wednesday, however, producer prices, up 0.5% from the previous month, against expectations for a 0.3% rise, had caused some concern, with an annual rise of 2.2%, in line with estimates, the largest increase since April 2023. Now, however, the market has become more optimistic about the Federal Reserve's moves and expects an interest rate cut of about 50 basis points during 2024.

ECB: Villeroy, most likely rate cut in June

It is very likely that the ECB will start cutting the cost of money at its next meeting on 6 June in Frankfurt. This was said by the governor of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with the radio station Rtl in which he emphasised that, barring unforeseen developments, the ECB is ready to start cutting interest rates with an initial intervention at the June meeting. Villeroy also explained that in the Governing Council some governors are pushing for a more cautious attitude after the first cut in June to ensure that the disinflationary path towards the 2 per cent target continues smoothly.

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Focus on banks, Burberry dampens luxury sector

Equities therefore remain at highs, with banks still the protagonists of the eve's session after the words of French President Macron who opened up to cross-over mergers in the Eurozone. In particular, Banca Mps , Banco Bpm and Banca Pop Er . Poste Italiane , which upgraded to an all-time high while awaiting the accounts, slipped into the red, with the effect of lower capital gains on Bancoposta's Btp portfolio weighing on first-quarter results. Utilities recovered ground after earlier weakness. The Interpump Group jumped after its accounts, despite a drop in profit and Ebitda. Also up well was Telecom Italia in the wake of rumours of a possible deal between the Kkr fund and the European antitrust regulator to speed up the company's 22 billion fixed-line deal. Luxury stocks fell, weighed down by Burberry (-4% in London), which gave a weak outlook for the first half of the fiscal year and did not provide an outlook for the year, underlining the decline in sales especially in China. Then declines for Kering, Hermes and Lvmh in Paris, while in Milan suffered Brunello Cucinelli and Moncler. Off the main list suffered Geox, which cut its growth estimates for the year.

Spread closes down at 131 points, 10-year yield drops to 3.73%

The BTp-Bund spread closed lower in a context of a general decline in yields on the euro curve after the US inflation figure. At the end of the session, the yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German ten-year bond stood at 131 points from 134 at the previous close. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp also fell more sharply, to 3.73% from 3.85% on the previous day's benchmark.

Aie lowers growth estimates for oil demand in 2024

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its oil demand growth estimates for 2024 after a slow start to the year with subdued industrial activity and mild winter temperatures reducing consumption in some of the world's largest economies, particularly in Europe. Oil demand growth is now forecast at 1.1 million barrels per day compared to the previous 1.2 million, the agency said in its monthly report. Total demand is still expected to average 103.2 million barrels per day. The revision is due to lower-than-expected growth in the first quarter, with oil demand in OECD countries contracting by 70,000 barrels per day year-on-year, the IEA explained. European demand for diesel fell by 140,000 barrels per day in the quarter, also dragged down by a decline in the share of diesel cars. The IEA raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2 million barrels per day from the previously estimated 1.1 million barrels per day, but said the estimates remain relatively unchanged. Total demand is seen to average 104.3 million barrels per day.

Euro strengthens against dollar, oil recovers after declines

On the currency, the euro strengthened against the dollar at 1.087 (1.082 on the eve). The single currency is also worth 168.35 yen (169.27), while the dollar/yen is at 154.85 (156.46). Oil moved not far from parity after the IEA cut its forecast for demand in 2024. The June Wti is trading at $78.21 (+0.21%) and the July Brent at $82.44 (+0.11%). Natural gas was also flat (+0.08%) in Amsterdam at €29.6 per MWh.

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