Oil closes on a high in New York: +11.4%. Wall Street little moved

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The day closed better than expected for the European stock markets, which at the end benefited from the recovery of Wall Street, with the Ftse Mib which after having reached in the intraday to lose over 2% closed the session down 0.2% at 45,624 points. The day had opened on heavy selling after US President Donald Trump in his address to the nation overnight froze hopes of a coming truce in the US-Iran war, announcing more heavy attacks and threatening to take the country "back to the stone age". The markets - which had hoped for an easing of tension yesterday - returned to a risk-off mood, with oil rallying well above $100 a barrel, with the Brent at around $108 a barrel and the Wti exceeding $110. Gas also rose, which in Amsterdam trades upward around EUR 50 per megawatt hour.

At the close of the session, equities recovered from their lows in the wake of Wall Street which, after a heavy start, returned close to parity on news of ongoing talks between Iran and Oman on traffic management in the Strait of Hormuz, an albeit partial sign of detente. Looking instead at projections, the International Monetary Fund says the US GDP is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026, with inflation still exposed to energy price risks, while unemployment in the country is expected to remain around 4%. Meanwhile S&P has halved its estimate for Italia's GDP and warns: 'If the oil shock lasts there will be a technical recession in Europe by mid-year'. Not very encouraging news also came from the ECB bulletin showing that rising energy prices will push inflation 'above 2% in the short term', with a sharp rise to 3.1% in the second quarter of 2026.

Amid hopes of a coming peace and US threats of taking Iran 'back to the stone age' with new heavy attacks, markets bet on the best-case scenario and closed the week on an upward trend, ahead of the long Easter holiday. Milan in the short week is up 5.2% and the balance is also positive since the beginning of the year (+1.5%) despite the war. Weekly rises of about three and a half percentage points for Frankfurt and Paris (but since the beginning of the year we are at -5.6% and -2.5% respectively). For the EuroStoxx600, we are at +3.7% (+0.6% since the beginning of the year). Admittedly, the final balance sheet does not take into account the steep rises and equally sharp falls that marked the four sessions of the week, with investors always at the mercy of the contradictory and conflicting narrative on the war, but after the heavy March April seems to be starting with a different tone.

All this, despite the performance of crude oil, still under pressure and with prices well above 100 dollars per barrel, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (but talks between Iran and Oman have raised hopes of a not too distant reopening). Over the course of the week, the Brent future lost about 6%, falling from USD 114 to USD 107 per barrel (and also dropping below USD 100), while the Wti future jumped more than 12% from USD 101 to USD 110 per barrel, a rare trend and one to be monitored in the oil market. Since the beginning of the year Brent has risen more than 70% and Wti has more than doubled its value. European gas fell by 8%, while gold recovered 3%, returning above $4,600 an ounce.

Looking at equities, during the week Stellantis recovered almost 12% (but the balance since the start of the year is still heavy, -30%), while Avio, Prysmian and Leonardo continued to rally, with rises of between 10% and 11% (and over 20% since the start of the year). Nexi also performed well (+10%, but -22% since the beginning of the year). At the back of the pack were Mps (-1.4%) and Mediobanca (-0.9%), with -19% and -7% respectively since the start of 2026. Some gains hit Tenaris (-0.5%, +53% since the beginning of the year).