Market Day

Wall Street closes negative but Tesla runs. In Milan (-0.1%) only the banking risk in turmoil

Paris the worst (-1.2%) pays for government crisis. New record for the Nasdaq, wait for US inflation and central banks. In Piazza Affari, shares of Banco Bpm and Mps rose, Stellantis also did well. Dollar on the rise as we wait for US inflation, oil purchases

by Chiara Di Cristofaro and Martina Soligo

La Borsa, gli indici del 10 dicembre 2024

5' min read

5' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A colourless session for European stock exchanges, with Milan closing at -0.1%. The rest of the Old Continent was also weak, with the Paris Cac the black jersey (-1.2%) bearing the brunt of political uncertainty after the fall of the Barnier government and hopes for a swift end to the crisis. Investors await Wednesday's US inflation data, which will be crucial in interpreting the Fed's future monetary policy moves ahead of its next meeting on 18 December. On the European front, however, eyes will be on the ECB meeting on Thursday and the usual press conference of President Christine Lagarde. A rate cut is now taken for granted, but the market is betting on a cut of only 25 basis points due to the climate of uncertainty caused on the one hand by geopolitical tensions with the escalation of the crisis in Syria, and on the other by fears of the tariff policy wanted by US President Donald Trump.

Wall Street closes negative despite Tesla rallying

Wall Street closes negative. The Dow Jones dropped 0.35 % to 44,247.83 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.25 % to 19,687.24 points (after having updated its all-time high to 19,887 points thanks to the tech rally) and the S&P 500 dropped 0.29 % to 6,035.11 points. In evidence Alphabet and Tesla, above $400. The stock touched $406.32, a record high for the year, and is targeting the best close since 3 January 2022, when it ended the session at $399.93, according to Dow Jones data. Tesla's record close is $409.97, recorded on 4 November 2021, while the all-time high, also recorded on 4 November 2021, is $414.50. Over the past week, the stock has gained almost 13%. The shares are benefiting from some rating upgrades, decided in recent days by several analysts, in the wake of Donald Trump's re-election to the White House, of which Elon Musk - Tesla's CEO - has become an important advisor, and the positive sales data in China. Since the election on 5 November, Tesla's share price has gained around 55%.

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Nvidia rebounded, having lost 2.55% on the eve of the event after Chinese authorities announced the opening of an investigation into the US technology company for possible violations of the country's anti-monopoly law. Last week, the Biden administration announced a new set of restrictions on the sale of US chips to China, fuelling new tensions between the two countries. The stock of Oracle dropped almost 9%, after the software company reported a below-expected quarterly report; since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained more than 80%.

Hold on for Fed, market bets on 25 basis point cut

Meanwhile, the market ponders the Fed's intentions, with the meeting scheduled for next week. 86.1 per cent of analysts polled by Cme Group's FedWatch Tool believe the US central bank will cut the cost of money by 25 basis points, but will also base their decision on the inflation data to be released on Wednesday, the other market mover this week. On the macro front, productivity improved. In particular, in the third quarter, excluding the agricultural and state sectors, it grew in line with expectations at +2.2% p.a., compared to +2.1% confirmed for the second quarter. Unit labour costs - an important thermometer of inflationary pressures - rose by 0.8%, less than the forecast of +1.2%. However, the previous quarter's figure was revised from +2.4% to -1.1%.

In Milan, eyes on banking risiko, under the lens Anima after Caltagirone move

Banks are still driving trading at Piazza Affari, with the banking risk increasingly at the centre of discussions. The shares of Banco Bpm (+1.2% at the top of the Ftse Mib) continue to rise, suggesting that more and more investors are betting on a revision of the terms of the offer by Unicredit (+0.3%), with the takeover bid possibly turning into an opas. The spotlight was also on Anima (+1%) after news emerged that businessman Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone had increased his stake to 5.3%. It should be noted that the sgr is under a takeover bid by Banco Bpm, the largest shareholder with a stake of over 20%. The stock closed the session at EUR 6.53 per share, above the IPO price of EUR 6.2. Mps also did well, closing among the best in the main list up 1.2%.

On the other hand, Tim went down, closing at +0.1% after a brilliant start. The stock was the subject of a series of positive reviews by brokers, starting with BofA, which confirmed its buy rating and raised its target price to 0.37 for ordinary shares and 0.44 for savings shares. Barclays also had a positive view on the stock and raised its recommendation to 'overweight' from 'equal weight', but cut its target price to EUR 0.32 from EUR 0.38. Purchases on Stellantis (+1%), which announced a €4.1 billion investment for a gigafactory in Spain. At the back of the pack was luxury goods with Brunello Cucinelli (-1.3%) after the substantial rises on the eve of the event, and St. Moritz (-1.2%). Outside the main basket, Beghelli (+42.4%) jumped to Euro 0.329, thus approaching the IPO price launched by Gewiss (Euro 0.3375).

German inflation at 2.2%, Italian production at the pole

On the macro front, it emerged thatGerman harmonised inflation in November stood at -0.2% on the month and +2.2% on the year. In Italy industrial production, at a seasonally adjusted level, was unchanged in October compared to the previous month. According to Istat's findings, the average level of production in the August-October quarter fell by 0.7 per cent compared to the previous three months. The monthly seasonally adjusted index shows cyclical increases in the energy (+1.7%) and consumer goods (+1.5%) sectors; on the other hand, capital goods (-0.2%) and intermediate goods (-1%) recorded negative changes. Net of calendar effects, in October the index decreased in trend terms by 3.6% (there were 23 calendar working days compared to 22 in October 2023).

Dollar up, wait for US inflation and ECB

The dollar is on the rise, ahead of US inflation data due on Wednesday that could give further clues about the Federal Reserve's path of monetary easing, as analysts assess the possible impact of newly elected President Donald Trump's policies as he begins his second term. Money markets are pricing in an 86% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week, but some analysts warn that Fed 'hawks' may have more influence in upcoming decisions. Thus, the euro/dollar is falling but movements remain limited pending Thursday's ECB decision as well as US consumer price data.

Oil on the rise, eyes on Syria

After the initial uncertainty, oil prices started to rise, with concerns about the consequences of the ousting of the Syrian president and Israel's intervention in Syria outweighing the effects of China's economic stimulus, which could increase demand from the world's largest buyer of crude oil. The situation in Syria at the moment is not a cause for concern from a supply point of view, with the rebels seemingly intent on maintaining order in the country. Although Syria is not a major oil producer, it is strategically positioned and has had strong ties with Russia and Iran. The market then awaits the Fed's decisions and looks to China, which may adopt an expansionary monetary policy in 2025, as Beijing seeks to stimulate economic growth.

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