Tourism: 485 million visitor arrivals expected in 2026 – growing demand for second homes and short-term rentals

Italian tourism is not merely going through a phase of growth, but is experiencing a genuine structural acceleration, driven by the redistribution of international tourist flows and the gradual extension of the tourist season. According to the latest Fiaip Observatory on the Tourist Property Market, which *Il Sole 24 Ore* is able to preview, estimates for 2026 paint a picture of strong expansion: total visitor numbers are forecast to exceed 485 million, up from 476.9 million in 2025, thanks to strong international demand.

Tourism’s contribution to the national economy is thus becoming increasingly significant. By 2026, total tourism expenditure is set to reach 190 billion euros, whilst the economic impact on the country as a whole is estimated at 247 billion, equivalent to around 11 per cent of the national gross domestic product. Revenue for local economies is also growing, with tourist tax reaching a total of 1.2 billion.

However, the figures on the increase in tourist numbers must also be viewed in the context of the growing pressure they are placing on accommodation facilities, second homes, the rental market and, consequently, housing availability. In this regard, the Observatory highlights one of the sector’s main challenges: the high concentration of visitors in certain areas of the country. According to Fiaip data, 75 per cent of tourist flows are in fact concentrated in just 4 per cent of the country’s territory. Destinations such as Rimini, Venice and Naples record particularly high levels, with peaks in the Romagna city exceeding 17,000 tourists per square kilometre. “The challenge in the coming years will be to manage the growth in tourist numbers, focus on the quality of the offering and promote the development of local areas in a way that combines sustainability and competitiveness,” explains Leonardo Piccoli, president of the Fiaip Research Centre.

Consequently, trends in the tourism sector are having an impact on the property market: the growth in short-term lettings, the rise in demand for second homes and the growing interest in properties designed to generate income from tourism are profoundly changing the residential market. According to data from the Observatory, sales of second homes have risen in recent years – from 216,000 in 2024 to 230,100 in 2025 – and Fiaip forecasts a further increase this year. “Of these 230,000 transactions,” explains Piccoli, “18.2 per cent are aimed at the tourist market. We are talking about around 42,000 homes, 93 per cent of which were purchased by Italians.”

In this context, the non-hotel accommodation sector dominates the hospitality industry, accounting for 71% of the total 724,000 registered establishments. Within this segment, over 70% consists of private accommodation let on a non-commercial basis. Short-term tourist lettings are therefore on the rise; by 2025, they had grown by 5%, accompanied by a 4% increase in rental rates compared with the previous year. There is also a growing trend towards professionalisation in the sector: tourist rentals managed by estate agents rose by 5% in 2026, a sign that owners are increasingly seeking expertise and guarantees in guest management.