Towards the Budget Bill: from Istat to Giorgetti, the hearings scheduled in Parliament

Six hearings in four hours. On Monday 12 October, the Budget Committees of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate will begin their examination of the Public Finance Policy Document (DPFP). From 2.00 pm, Istat, the Court of Auditors, the CNEL, the Bank of Italy and the Parliamentary Budget Office will be heard. At 6.00 pm, the Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, will bring the proceedings to a close.

This is the schedule of hearings set for next week, following the Council of Ministers’ approval on Friday 2 October of the Dpfp and the report on the request for a budgetary deviation, which were submitted to Parliament the following night.

The baseline scenario forecasts growth of 1 per cent for 2026 – up from the 0.6 per cent indicated in April’s Public Finance Document – and a deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP, below the 3 per cent threshold. However, the Document highlights the ‘high level of uncertainty’ on the international stage and a ‘slower-than-expected’ fall in oil and gas prices. If energy price trends were less favourable, growth would fall by 0.2 percentage points in 2027 and 0.1 percentage points in 2028 compared with the baseline scenario. At a press conference, Giorgetti indicated that the approach to the Budget Bill would be ‘more prudent’ than previously announced.

The deviation requested from Parliament amounts to up to approximately 29 billion over the two-year period 2027–2028. This represents 0.3 per cent of GDP per year for each of the two items covered by the national safeguard clause (NEC): energy and defence. The request to invoke the clause was sent to Brussels on 10 September. The minister explained that the allocation for defence had been reduced compared with the initial plans. In August, in the Chamber of Deputies, Giorgetti had indicated 0.9 per cent of GDP for defence and 0.6 per cent for energy.

With the NEC, net debt would rise to 3.4 per cent in 2027 and 3.2 per cent in 2028, before falling to 2.3 per cent in 2029. Without the clause, it would remain at 2.8 per cent and 2.6 per cent, with a difference equal to exactly 0.6 per cent between the two figures. According to Giorgetti, compliance with the threshold should be assessed on the basis of these adjusted figures. The Dpfp forecasts that, if the EU Commission’s spring 2027 forecasts confirm this trend, the Council could close the excessive deficit procedure opened in 2024, based on the final figures for 2026.