Towards a 2.2 billion Black Friday but consumption struggles

Around 2.2 billion euros. This is the amount Italians will spend on Black Friday. Over the next ten days they will buy a mountain of products that will be delivered in 41.5 million parcels, according to the latest edition of the Netcomm B2C eCommerce Observatory - School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano and the Netcomm Delivery Index, which show a growing phenomenon in terms of both value (+7) and volume (+9%).

Over the next ten days, up to Cyber monday, almost 35 million Italians will participate in this shopping rush, trusting to find the most convenient gift or gadget, while the most efficient and competitive sellers will realise three times the turnover of an average day. The product categories most affected by these initiatives will be: Clothing, Food & Grocery and Beauty & Healthcare. Experiences related to the world of travel and events are also doing well. In addition, Netcomm highlights a growing trend for some specific categories: products in the Games and Hobbies category are purchased in view of Christmas almost five times more in the Black Friday period than on the average day of the year, while the purchase of Musical Instruments and Household Appliances triples in this period. Services are also growing, first of all purchases of travel tickets, up 13 per cent compared to 2024.

"We foresee that 34.9 million Italians will resort to the online channel for their purchases during this period: this is evidence that confirms the strength of this initiative, which has now become the moment par excellence when Italians concentrate a significant part of their Christmas purchases and not only - explains Roberto Liscia, president of Netcomm -. At the same time, it is interesting to observe an imbalance between the increase in the volume of packages and the more contained growth in the economic value of purchases made during the promotional period. For Black Friday 2025, Italians will increasingly focus on savings, and this is linked to two relevant phenomena in today's digital retail: on the one hand, the rapid expansion of the second-hand market, and on the other hand, the increasing entry of products from abroad characterised by lower average prices. Both factors contribute to a reduction of the average shopping basket value, even in the presence of steadily increasing demand'. This is the effect of the arrival of Temu, Shein and similar platforms offering low price products.

Merchants will generally apply an average discount of around 25% according to different promotional schemes, from selected products to the most loyal customers. Free shipping is an option applied by 19% of merchants.

"This year's Black Friday has the characteristics of a more consolidated phenomenon, not only because the pace of growth is far from that of the phenomenon's beginnings in Italy, but also because there is greater maturity on the part of consumers and merchants," emphasises Valentina Pontiggia, Director of the Netcomm B2C eCommerce Observatory - Politecnico di Milano. First, as the novelty effect has worn off, consumers are more aware of the dynamics of discounting and buying online. Second, the extension of the discount period to at least one week allows merchants to manage traffic and operational peaks with less stress. Merchants are also investing more in the strategic planning of promotional activities, including advance planning aimed at enhancing marketing (75%), logistics (65%) and customer care (52%). Finally, it is a Black Friday under the banner of exclusivity: more and more eCommerce sites are reserving promotions for the most loyal customers, enhancing targeted and personalised approaches.