Trump and the paradox of politics as a generator of uncertainty

'The euro, the dollar and Mister Trump': this was the title of the lecture given by Donato Masciandaro, professor at the Bocconi University in Milan, at the Calepini Hall of the Trento Chamber of Commerce, during the opening day of the Festival of Economics. A speech that took place on the very day on which the Confindustria Studies Centre issued, in its 'Congiuntura flash' note, a new alarm for the economy's resilience as a result of the war scenarios in the Gulf of Hormuz. Scenarios in which all available macroeconomic sensors (from the European Central Bank to the International Monetary Fund) are almost unanimous in their estimates of a slowing economy.

And it is precisely on the influence of the administration led by Donald Trump on the international economic situation that Masciandaro questioned himself, citing the question he was recently asked by a student at the Milan University: 'Is there method in this madness? To answer, Masciandaro considered the two main players of this phase: 'The first is obviously Trump, the second is Europe. To these two actors I would add a key word which is 'dominance'.

Trump has two characteristics,' Masciandaro pointed out, 'he is a populist and he is simultaneously special. What do I mean by this double definition: that he is a populist at the head of the executive of the most powerful nation in the world in multiple respects. And what is a populist for economic analysis? A particular type of politician who has two very specific goals: to maximise consensus and to stay in office. This is where the category of 'dominance' comes in: the ruling executive.

And this is precisely the difference between a traditional politician and the populist: the traditional politician respects the rules of the game, first and foremost the separation of powers, between the executive, the judiciary and the legislature, and then,' Masciandaro added, 'there are the independent authorities that act within the economic and financial perimeter'. The traditional politician, he remarked, "also aims to maximise consensus. The difference is that he does not discuss the division and distribution of power: the populist does.

 Two examples: tariff policy is an economic instrument that is activated to achieve an economic goal: economic growth, employment and inflation. This is the traditional approach. Then there is another approach that has been christened the geopolitical approach. What is the difference? That Trump uses the tools of economic policy for goals that are not economic. To be clearer: the objective of the tariffs policy in this case is to put pressure on other countries'.