The US election verdict

Trump effect: Meloni 'climbs' the ranking of European premiers, leaving Macron and Scholz behind

The PM has the wind in her sails, she has a solid majority and a growing personal consensus, and she is the PM of the third largest country in the Union. But above all, in these two plus years of government, she has continued to maintain her strong relationship with the American right wing

by Barbara Fiammeri

Trump presidente: per Giorgia Meloni un rapporto carico di aspettative, ma anche di timori

4' min read

4' min read

Now many in Europe are looking towards Giorgia Meloni's Italy. Yes, because, without having to claim it, the Italian Prime Minister is currently the leader with the best chance of holding a constructive confrontation with the next US administration. At the summit underway in Budapest the most radiant was undoubtedly the host, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban a Donald Trump supporter from the first hour. But certainly the Hungarian leader is in no way a candidate to represent the European side. His closeness to Vladimir Putin, his vetoes against funding Ukraine or migration policies do not make him a credible ambassador for most of the 27.

"We know what we have to do," the Prime Minister said on arriving at the informal European Council in Budapest, "now the question is whether we want to give the member states the necessary resources, this is the real debate and I do not know if this morning will come up with concrete solutions, but it is the central element. "Let us start from the assumption,' he added, 'that I am absolutely convinced that Europe, and therefore also Italy, must succeed in guaranteeing their greater independence, their greater autonomy, also by investing more in defence. Clearly we need the instruments to be able to do this. This is a big debate concerning the stability pact, which Italy has put in place. There are openings in the new pact. In my opinion, much more needs to be done and so I think this is another of those debates that will have to be reopened sooner or later'.

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Neither can the current leaders of the two main countries, Germany and France, both grappling with an internal political crisis that undermines their leadership, act as 'bridgeheads': Olaf Scholz is now a chancellor who, in addition to having lost the popular consensus in the last electoral tests, now also lacks a parliamentary majority and this will shortly lead Germany to a vote.No less serious is the crisis on the French side with Emmanuel Macron increasingly alone at the helm and with a constant background buzz about his possible farewell to the Elysée before the natural end of his second term in 2027.

Meloni on the other hand has the wind in her sails, she has a solid majority and a growing personal consensus, and she is the Premier of the third country in the Union. But above all, in these two plus years of government, she has continued to maintain a strong relationship with the American right in parallel with her excellent relationship with the Biden administration. The understanding with Elon Musk - the main Trump supporter who has deployed his social machine together with hundreds of millions of dollars in support of the Republican candidate - is the litmus test. The patron of Tesla, X and Space X has been the object of Meloni's attentions for years. He has been to Palazzo Chigi several times, she had him last December as guest of honour at Atreju, she asked him to be the one to hand her the Global citizen aware in September. 'He is an added value of our time and a possible interlocutor,' said the FdI leader.

A balancing act that has often been criticised but which may now bear fruit. After all, it is the same as in Brussels. Meloni has built a direct relationship with Ursula von der Leyen and other right-wing leaders and not only, becoming a sort of bridge-builder between the European summits and the sovereignist right, useful on several occasions to soften the vetoes of her more extreme allies, starting with Orban. And the fact that this balancing act has worked, that it has not penalised her, is demonstrated by the fact that despite the 'no' to von der Leyen's encore, Ursula herself has chosen to assign for the first time an exponent of the Conservative group led by Fratelli d'Italia, namely Raffaele Fitto, the role of executive vice-president, provoking the wrath of the Socialists (who continue to threaten not to vote for him) but obtaining the convinced placet of the European People's Party.

Now the game is much more complicated. Trump has already announced a protectionist squeeze with an increase in duties that could cause a further fall in the European economy and that would be felt above all by the exporting countries: Germany, Italy and France above all. For us, we are talking about costs of between 4 and 7 billion. Then there is the other big issue, and this too no less weighty: Trump's foreign and defence policy. Putin's praise does not bode well. Meloni and the entire European summit in recent years has always supported Zelensky. But without the US, Kiev's capitulation is certain. Just as a reduced American commitment to NATO, which Trump himself has threatened in the past, would make Europe dangerously exposed. Italy is among those countries that has not kept its commitment to reach the 2% defence spending ceiling. And just in the last few days Economy Minister Giorgetti confirmed that this is a target that is currently unachievable.

'It seems to me that Europe has to find a balance and measure itself,' said the PM. 'We seem to be discovering debates today, I am thinking of the issue of competitiveness, of duties. But I remember that the debate on European competitiveness is a debate that started months ago in the aftermath of the Inflation Reduction Act. If we wanted to say it with a joke reminiscent of American presidents, don't ask what the US can do for you, ask what Europe should do for itself, which is the debate this morning' at the informal EU summit in Budapest.

The game has only just begun and it promises to be fraught with danger. But there is no alternative: you have to play it.

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