Trump's tariffs damage up to €3.3 billion for Italian products

Up to 3.3 billion euros. This is the cost for Italian exports of the introduction of tariffs, which should be applied from 9 July, wanted by President Trump according to a study by Centromarca with the contribution of Nomisma. The brand industry association puts five possible hypotheses on the government's table: 10% with the loss of 489 million euro in export value; 20%, -1.067 billion; 30%, -1.734 billion; 40%, -2.489 billion; 50%, -3.334 billion. Further penalising exports would also be the unfavourable euro/dollar exchange rate: in the first months of 2025, the European currency appreciated significantly against the US currency (+11% between January and June), reaching its highest level since 2022.

"The uncertainty over the application of tariffs is of great concern to our industries, both on an economic level and because it does not allow for adequate strategic planning and in bargaining with US buyers," emphasises Vittorio Cino, director general of Centromarca. "It is a critical issue that should not be underestimated if we consider the relevance of the overseas market for food and non-food goods produced in Italy. In 2024, US imports of Italian grocery goods produced a turnover of EUR 9.9 billion, with a growth of +161% compared to 2014 and an incidence of 11% on the sector's overall exports. It is noteworthy that in the first four months of this year the increase in value was 14% compared to the same period in 2024. Based on these considerations, Centromarca is supporting companies with ad hoc analyses and is constantly interfacing with its correspondents in Brussels and with the relevant ministries'.

For Italian exporters, what makes the picture worse is the revaluation of the dollar, which threatens to knock out margins and export volumes. Then there is the unknown factor of the reaction of US consumers. According to the Nomisma survey, 85% of Americans are aware of the existence of tariffs and 50% believe that it will have a negative effect on their purchases. Faced with a 20% price increase brought about by the tariffs, most consumers say they would continue to buy Italian products, but an important share, between 30% and 40%, would do so to a lesser extent. Italian products that are more easily replaced by goods made in the States or in other countries could be affected, while the impact could be more contained for premium or less substitutable products such as DOCG and PDO products and the most famous brands.