Ta old and new

Trump updates neocon recipe and focuses on Bitcoin

On the agenda are deregulation, corporate tax cuts, tariffs, a stop to tip taxes and open support for cryptocurrencies

by Marco Valsania

4' min read

4' min read

There are classic conservative recipes: the call for tax rate cuts for Corporate America and deregulation, starting with 'baby drill', promises to drill up to world 'dominance' in energy. But in the new version of Trumponomics, the economy according to Donald Trump, there are also and above all heterodox ingredients of conservative neo-populism, reinforced by the choice of JD Vance as deputy: the elimination of taxes on gratuities and pension benefits, all-out trade wars, forced exoduses of immigrants, a heavy hand on the Federal Reserve, sacrificed to a muscular presidency. In between, space for recent passions, from cryptocurrencies to TikTok. Almost non-existent in contrast are old mentions of fiscal austerity.

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The Republican White House candidate's plans have at their heart familiar priorities - tariffs, relief and clampdowns on illegal immigrants. In a sea of eclecticism, which nonetheless makes the Trump 2024 a much more aggressive version on paper of the great improviser who rose to prominence in 2016, part of the outsider image heedless of accusations of fuelling chaos or contradictory ideas.

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The newest positions are revealing of what the US media has dubbed Trump's 'malleability'. Cutting taxes on tips is popular in services, particularly in the restaurant industry where much of the income is generated by the generosity of customers. The federal minimum wage here stops at $2.13 per hour. However, his administration had proposed, if anything, to transfer tips to companies to use at their discretion, to the detriment of workers estimated at 5.8 billion a year. Not to mention the doubts about the effects of the exemption: a few raises now, at the risk of reduced or no pension provision in the future.

This is not the only surprise position: if in the past Trump had been a fierce detractor of TikTok, part of the escalation of national security tensions with China (home of parent company ByteDance), today he poses as its standard bearer. 'We will save TikTok,' he said. And he added without batting an eyelid: 'To everyone on TikTok I say vote for me'. There is no shortage, among critics, of suspicions of favours for Republican billionaire Jeff Yass, a major investor in the app. Again, here is Bitcoin, which he once dismissed as speculative and dangerous: he invites donations and purchases of electoral products in cryptocurrency and announces the 'defence of the right to mine Bitcoin'. What's more: at a conference on digital currency he pledged, as part of his vision of making America great again, to turn the country into a 'planetary crypto capital', a 'Bitcoin superpower'.

Cryptocurrency deregulation is actually dear to the new right, which is opposed to plans for more stable digital currencies controlled by central banks. And Vance's arrival at his side signals further flurries of populism: the deputy pick is known to have also advocated anathemas for the Republican business community, from minimum wage increases to anti-trust campaigns on big business. His social conservatism sees him promoting tax incentives for families to have children, criticised by conservative analysts as disincentives to work.

The revival of the fight against immigration and trade tariffs - the two perhaps essential chapters - can be read in the same key. If crackdowns on illegal immigrants complement law and order agendas, a climate of mass expulsions, 'the biggest in history', beyond human dramas can traumatise entire sectors: according to the Peterson Institute, removing even 'just' 1.1 million workers would cause recessions and economic contractions of 2.1%. Flagrant levies of 10% against all three trillion in imports - and 60% against China - would represent ten times the tariffs decided by Trump in his first term and could cause earthquakes and inflationary spirals, despite the fact that he has promised to eliminate the caravan.

The emphasis on these priorities is enshrined in the simplified 16-page party platform sought by Trump. Other cornerstones could anchor his 'doctrine', beyond all fickleness, in a more radical form than in the past. In one of the most constant promises, he has announced he wants to lower corporate taxes to 15% from 21%, not only making permanent but expanding across-the-board tax cuts enacted during his first term and already costing the public purse 1.7 trillion. The combination of tax cuts and duties, according to Moody's, would have a net cost to the treasury of 1.7 trillion.

Deregulation and the strengthening of the White House's executive power are also part of Project 2025, a more articulate America First agenda disavowed by Trump, who does not like being dictated to, but prepared by an army of his flankers. The strengthened authority in the White House could heavily condition, on the economic front, crucial institutions such as the Fed, whose independence is considered by most to be necessary for the credibility of monetary policy: Trump has asserted that he wants a say on interest rates. He explained: 'I've made a lot of money and been very successful. I think I have better instincts than the people at the Federal Reserve'.

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