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Trump unleashes tough tariffs against all: 20% on the EU, 34% on China, 25% on cars

Wall Street plunged in the after-market as it waits to reopen today amid high tension. There are 60 countries with additional tariffs on top of the 10 per cent equal. The minimum tariffs will start on 5 April, the others on 9. Auto and steel sectors, already affected, among those exempted from the new duties

by Marco Valsania

Dazi, Cina ed effetto Musk su Tesla

5' min read

5' min read

'It's liberation day': Donald Trump has unabashedly made the threatening promise to lift the curtain on aggressive tariffs on all US partners, rivals and allies alike. The formula, more drastic than many expected, prescribes a minimum of 10% on virtually all imports into the US. And much higher tariffs, double, triple and as high as 50%, for some sixty countries considered the most unfair in trade, a blacklist ranging from the European Union to Japan, from South Korea to China.

The move represents a hard blow to international economic relations, which could trigger escalation of trade wars and which immediately shook Wall Street: in the after-market and overnight, futures linked to the Dow Jones index showed losses of 2.5%, those on the S&P 500 by 3.6% and on the Nasdaq by almost 5%. Citigroup described the manoeuvre as much higher than expected by traders and analysts, capable on balance of pushing US average effective rates over 25 per cent against an expected 10 per cent.

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The European Union is hit by 20 per cent tariffs, China by 34 per cent. The basic duties will be triggered on 5 April, the increased duties on 9 April, calculated according to Washington in a proportional manner and according to Trump they would be about half of the tariff and non-tariff barriers applied against US-made goods. Numerous experts and critics denounce those White House calculations as subjective and unfounded.

"Our country has been plundered and violated," the US President intoned. "This will never happen again," he promised in the Rose Garden of the White House before his ministers and an audience of some 150 guests, including auto workers. "Today's is a true declaration of economic independence," he said.

Trump also announced that as of midnight on 2 April, 25% tariffs on foreign-made cars will be triggered. Exempt from the new reciprocal duties are only Canada and Mexico, which are already subject to announced 25% tariffs due to the White House's inadequate efforts against fentanyl and migrants. From those duties are so far spared goods covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and timber will also be exempt from country tariffs for the time being, but only because they are being investigated for the future application of specific measures. Steel and aluminium are also excluded because they have been affected by tariffs of 25% since last month. Finally, some energy products and minerals not available in the United States are spared.

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The overall sense of Trump's manoeuvre is that of an undoubtedly dramatic unilateral offensive. "America First will be our slogan," said the President. The executive order he signed left room for negotiation, empowering the President to modify the tariffs based on negotiations with partners and their appropriate concessions. However, it remains to be seen whether Trump has real diplomatic intentions or whether these are only on paper. Further worsening of protectionism is also possible, with US tariff increases in response to retaliation by other countries.

Tariffs on China now up to 54%

Trump detailed the duties by holding up a board and starting with China, to which duties of 34% will be applied. Added to already decided duties of 20%, the duties against Beijing now stand at 54%. It is not the only nation targeted: in all, he pointed out, there are 60 countries identified by the administration that will have additional duties on top of the 10% base equal for all. These are those that the White House believes have the most unfair trade relations with the US. He added that he considered his action benign, asserting that the new US duties would actually be no more than half of those imposed on America by its partners.

Trump, after China, announced tariffs of 10% against Britain, which are however less than those imposed on the European Union (20%), attacked as pathetic and accused of imposing 39% barriers to US goods. Although real European tariffs are actually estimated by the World Bank to average around 2%, not much different so far from the average US tariffs.

Then, from one corner of the planet to the other: duties of 17% on Israel, 26% for India. Tariffs of 46% for Vietnam, 32% for Taiwan, 10% for Brazil. Duties of 30% for South Africa, 31% for Switzerland, 49% for Cambodia.

The President promised that such tariffs would "bring back the golden age", revive the "American dream" and "generate trillions of dollars to reduce our taxes and debt", speaking before a parade of star-spangled flags. "Let's put America First again" and make America Wealthy Again. "Make America Wealthy Again," he said.

Economists, on the contrary, foresee immediate inflation and net job losses, if not a full-blown recession, while reindustrialisation hypotheses seem much more fragile and distant, since it will take years and certainty, which does not exist today, for any real reorganisation of huge and complex production and supply chains, which would go beyond image announcements or isolated new investments. Most analysts agree that tariffs are both an inefficient and ineffective instrument of industrial policy, with many more risks than benefits.

New basic tariffs from 5 April, heavier tariffs from 9 April

The Trump administration defies the economic consensus, however. A White House official confirmed that the basic reciprocal duties, i.e. those at 10%, will be applied from Saturday 5 April, those with higher rates from Wednesday 9 April. In the presidential decree signed by Donald Trump, each individual country is listed with the rate applied. In addition to the UK and Brazil, the 10% duties will also apply to Singapore, Chile, Australia, Colombia, Turkey and a number of 'minor' states.

Trump declares national emergency on trade

The administration also made it clear that Trump will declare a national emergency on trade as legitimacy for the imposition of tariffs. This is a 1977 law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the President vast powers to act on transactions in the event of a threat from abroad. Trump decreed that 'foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency' and the tariffs 'will strengthen the economic position of the United States and protect American workers'.

Among the first independent analyses of the impact of the announced duties came from Exiger, which called the move a "monumental policy shift that will reshape supply chains, prices, and geopolitical strategies": it estimated that the new tariffs amount to $600 billion a year, concentrated against ten countries. Chinese exports will be affected by a $149 billion increase, Vietnam by $63 billion, Taiwan by $37 billion, Japan by $36 billion and Germany and Ireland together by $41 billion. Other estimates are not so different: Capital Economics expects the duties to amount to over 800 billion, Citigroup to 700 billion.

La nuova geografia economica disegnata dai dazi Usa

The Trump administration also decided to impose 25% duties on all imported canned beers and all empty aluminium cans, starting on Friday 4 April. This was announced by the US Department of Commerce.


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