Quarterly reports

Chip, record accounts for TSMC. But Trump's tariffs worry

The impetus of artificial intelligence is still very strong. But the effect of geopolitical tensions is a real risk

2' min read

2' min read

Taiwanese chip giant, TSMC, posted record profits in the second quarter of 2025, significantly beating analysts' estimates. But it is the company's caution about the future that makes the headlines: the company warns that growth could slow down from the fourth quarter onwards, due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.

But let's look at the numbers. In the April-June period, TSMC reported a net profit of NT$398.3 billion (approximately USD13.5 billion), a 60.7 per cent jump over the same quarter in 2024. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth and the best quarterly result ever for the company. Market expectations (TWD 377.9 billion according to LSEG estimates) were far exceeded.

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Driving the results was, once again, the growing demand for artificial intelligence chips. "AI demand is getting stronger and stronger," said CEO C.C. Wei, pointing out that in the third quarter TSMC also expects a further jump in sales, with growth of up to 40 per cent. For the full year, the company has revised upwards its revenue growth estimates in US dollars: it now expects +30%, compared to the previous 'just over 25%'.

Nvidia riprenderà a breve vendite in Cina di un chip per l'IA

So the Taiwanese company's business, which counts giants such as Apple and Nvidia among its customers, is booming. And it must be said that good news has also arrived on the Chinese front. In fact, Nvidia itself has received authorisation from the US government to resume the sale of the H20 chip to Beijing, a strategic market. "This is very positive news, both for them and for us,' commented Wei.

But the geopolitical front remains the most insidious. The CEO admitted that the outlook for the fourth quarter is more uncertain: 'We are starting to consider the potential impact of tariffs and other unknowns. That is why we are taking a more conservative approach'. While there has been no change in customer behaviour yet, caution remains high. And it could not be otherwise, also in view of the fact that Taiwan is also at the centre of major tensions with China.

Finally, one more fact. In addition to tariffs, TSMC has to deal with another element of risk: the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar, which has gained about 12% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. And analysts fear the effect will be reflected in third-quarter margins, which are expected to fall between 55.5 per cent and 57.5 per cent, down from 58.6 per cent in the second quarter. Start-up costs for new plants in the US and Japan will also weigh heavily. But for these there will be time.

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