Turnover, Confindustria: Rtt index shows strong recovery in September
Expectations still positive for production in October, but down slightly
Key points
A strong recovery in September, +4.7%, with a positive trend in all sectors, after the drop in August. This is what emerges from the RTT, the index constructed on the basis of seasonally adjusted and deflated turnover data of the sample of TeamSystem's client companies, released by the Centro studi Confindustria. Looking at industry, the September rise, +3.7%, is not enough to compensate for the August drop. In services, on the other hand, the recovery is full, after the previous drop which had been deeper than in industry. Despite this, the change in the third quarter is negative, both in industry and services. Construction is proceeding differently: for the fourth consecutive month, a moderate increase continues in September, +1.7%.
Overall, the RTT indicates a negative, albeit moderate, change in turnover in Q3 20205, -1.1%, due to the sharp decline in August. The three-month moving average just returned to positive territory (+0.4% in September).
In October, expectations are still positive for production, but down slightly
Moving forward, looking at October and the activity of large industrial enterprises, the expectations of industrialists are still positive overall compared to the previous month, but down compared to September. This is what emerges from the rapid survey on the industrial production of large member companies and Confindustria, compiled by the association's Study Centre. Almost half of the large industrial enterprises anticipate a significant or moderate increase in production (46.3%). More than a third expect stability, 35.1%, while just under a fifth, 18.6%, expect a contraction.
The balance on demand and orders rose again and again became the main strength supporting production. In October it stood at 5.2%, after having reached zero in the previous month. Expectations on labour availability improved: the balance in October stood at 0.8%, following 0.2% in the previous month.
Minus sign for the balance of production costs
The balance on production costs, on the other hand, improved compared to September (-4.2 per cent from -5.3 per cent). Judgments on financial conditions were positive, albeit with a slight decrease (1.5 from 2.0 per cent). The balance on availability of materials fell into negative territory: (-2.9 per cent from 0.8 per cent). The judgment on plant availability, on the other hand, deteriorated significantly: -0.4 per cent from 2.4 per cent.
