UniCredit-Commerzbank, ECB green light is a strong signal towards merger

The ECB banking supervisory authority is preparing to give its green light to the rise of the Italian UniCredit group to 29.9% in the capital of Germany's Commerzbank. It is a heavy authorisation, since by giving its OK, the ECB in fact opens the door wide - as far as it is concerned - to the future aggregation between the two institutions.

This is of historic significance for the sector because, if the Uni-Commerz union really came to fruition, it would be the first truly major cross-border banking aggregation in Europe since the Single Supervisory Authority existed. This is a strong signal, which is consistent with all public statements by ECB members in favour of creating European champions in the banking world. Contradicting any alleged nationalism within the European Supervisory Authority (President Claudia Buch is German), a green light is coming from Frankfurt for the birth of the first major pan-European banking group.

A technical choice that is also consistent with the wishes of the EU Commission, which, politically, has repeatedly expressed itself in favour of the emergence of European champions even in the credit and asset management sector. In turn, the EU has other authorisation powers over the transaction, which are entrusted to the Antitrust Authority, but given the fragmentation of the German banking market, analysts expect another go-ahead from the European authorities.

Paradoxically, those who oppose the merger between UniCredit and Commerzbank are those who have no formal power to intervene. That is, at least so far, the German government. Will the anti-Italian barricades, which have no legal basis, continue even after the new Merz government is formed? In the election campaign, practically all German parties lined up in defence of Commerzbank. But now that the propaganda is over, and geopolitical events are proposing the urgency of a common European defence, is it possible for an EU state - without having specific powers of intervention - to continue to oppose the birth of a pan-European banking group? The junction is crucial for the evolution of the sector from a cross-border perspective because, should Uni-Commerz succeed, other cross-border operations will follow. The European authorities are doing their job and pushing in this direction, but the national governments - sometimes overstepping their powers - seem to be rowing against it.