UniCredit-Commerzbank, new top management meeting

The top management of UniCredit and Commerzbank will meet for the second time early next week. This time, too, it was revealed by the German bank, which informed investors of the upcoming meeting following the presentation of its quarterly accounts on Wednesday. "Commerzbank will meet with UniCredit management early next week," reads a Citigroup analysts' note released yesterday after the meeting with the German bank's management. No official confirmation has come from the two banks. According to IlSole24Ore, UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel will be in New York from next Monday for a series of road shows to present quarterly accounts with US investors.

According to Citi's report, Commerzbank's top management reiterated that a possible merger 'can only create value if there is an amicable approach' considering 'potential synergies and execution risks'. And in defending Commerz's reasons for autonomy, the German bank wanted to point out that its profitability ratios are not entirely comparable to those of Hvb, the German subsidiary of UniCredit.

The first meeting between the two banks' top management, held at a distance after UniCredit's entry into Commerzbank's capital, had been little more than a presentation of the German bank's accounts to its new first private shareholder. Will it be the same this time? Or will the second meeting serve to enter into dialogue in order to study an aggregation process? Judging by Orcel's statements last Wednesday, it seems difficult to expect sensational developments in the short term. So much so that the CEO of UniCredit said that he expects possible negotiations to end within a year, leaving open at any time the possibility of selling about 9% of Commerzbank's shares and cashing in a capital gain.

The new element in the last few hours, however, is that the German government led by Olaf Scholz, which had branded the advance of UniCredit as 'hostile', has entered into crisis after the liberals left the majority coalition. And now the expectation, both in political and financial circles, is that Germany is preparing for a long campaign ahead of early elections in March.

Does the fact that the transition to the vote in Berlin is being led by a fragile minority government open a window of opportunity for UniCredit? Or on the contrary, will the start of the election campaign in Germany create a bipartisan climate of defence of every German strategic asset? The topic concerns UniCredit but also the delicate negotiations between Ita and Lufthansa. And also the growth ambitions in the media sector of the Berlusconi family's MFE, which is betting on the German Prosiebensat.