Unicredit shares fall despite record half-year results; Orcel plays it safe on the risk front

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Unicredit slips on the Milan Stock Exchange following the publication of first-half results. The bank closed the first six months of the year with a record net profit of €6.1 billion, up 24% on the same period in 2025 and exceeding market expectations. In the second quarter alone, however, net profit fell by 13.1% year-on-year to €2.9 billion. Excluding a one-off item linked to trading income relating to Commerzbank, the result still stands at €3.1 billion.

According to market participants, the share price is being weighed down primarily by the comments made by the chief executive , Andrea Orcel, regarding the banking crisis . The manager struck a cautious note both regarding the Italian market and with regard to the potential acquisition of Commerzbank, emphasising that the process remains a long one and that a possible integration between the two banks would take at least two or three years. “This does not mean that we will not generate value in two or three years’ time – quite the contrary,” Orcel clarified, reiterating that the transaction must meet strict criteria for creating value for shareholders.

The statements were interpreted by the market as a sign of caution regarding an issue that had fuelled expectations of faster progress in recent months. This triggered profit-taking, particularly given that Unicredit’s shares have risen by 12–13 per cent since the start of the year and by around 32 per cent over the past year.

Some analysts, however, are also focusing their attention on the fate of UniCredit’s billion-euro share buyback, which had already been put on hold due to the bid for Commerz and which now could be scrapped altogether. Indeed, the quarterly results state that the group’s CET1 ratio for 2026 is forecast to be around 15 per cent prior to the full consolidation of the German bank. Now, the initial impact on capital resulting from the consolidation – assuming the bid is completed by the end of the year and all necessary authorisations are obtained – is, as stated, ‘expected to be around 200 basis points’, including “the effect of the cancellation of the €4.75 billion share buyback programme for 2025”.

Analysts on the conference call then asked Orcel about this point, given that the share buyback is currently still deducted from the capital ratios. This is because, as the banker explained, the buyback has not been cancelled, but is merely suspended for the time being. In practice, it will only be permanently cancelled if UniCredit acquires control of and consolidates Commerz. Otherwise, it will be reinstated immediately. This uncertainty, although it has been factored in for some time, is helping to hold back the share price on the Milan Stock Exchange.