UniCredit in the spotlight following its results and the upward revision of its targets; Commerzbank also makes headway

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Unicredit is in the spotlight on the Milan Stock Exchange following the presentation of its third-quarter results, the raising of targets and indications regarding its next moves in Germany. The bank’s shares are gaining ground amid a session of widespread buying across the sector, in light of the new phase of the ‘Risiko’ game initiated by Credit Agricole  with the proposal to Banco Bpm to merge with CA Italia. A move that appears to have left Unicredit’s CEO, Andrea Orcel, unfazed; two years ago, he had attempted to take over the Milan-based bank in Piazza Meda, but without success. Since then, the bank has remained an ‘observer’, as Orcel reiterated again today; he views the BPM-Agricole Italia deal as ‘an opportunity’ to gain market share. According to the CEO, Unicredit will reach a 15 per cent stake and will do so ‘without paying a single euro in premium’. Orcel is pressing ahead with the acquisition of control of Commerzbank , whilst awaiting the final approvals, expected by the end of November, to implement the new governance structure by early 2027. For Unicredit, the CET 1 ratio will remain at or above 13 per cent, “growing rapidly from then on”, the bank points out. Dividends to shareholders are expected to remain “unchanged” for 2026, whilst for 2027–2030 they are “improved compared to the standalone scenario”. In 2028, earnings per share are expected to be well above 10 euros with distributions to shareholders well above 8 euros per share and ‘further growth potential in 2029’. Furthermore, a merger with HVB (HypoVereinsbank) would unlock further value, potentially sooner than expected.

News that analysts like: according to Equita (Buy recommendation and a target price of 100 euros), the guidance on the merger with Commerzbank is ‘above expectations’. The results for the third quarter of 2026 are also better than expected. This, together with the improved 2026 guidance, is expected to drive a positive reaction in the share price. Barclays (with an ‘overweight’ rating and a target price of 102.6) also welcomes the guidance on Germany, which ‘suggests a possible acceleration of the merger process with HVB’. Analysts therefore expect UniCredit to ‘outperform the market’ on the stock exchange today, as ‘the third-quarter trends are solid and the guidance provided on the stand-alone outlook is positive’. Net profit, excluding the full consolidation of Commerzbank, is confirmed to be well over 13 billion in 2028 and is estimated to be well over 15 billion in 2030. Intermonte takes a similar view, highlighting the bank’s “very solid quarter” and explaining that the guidance on EPS for 2028 would imply “an upside compared with our estimates”.

UniCredit closed the first nine months of the year with a net profit of 9.4 billion (+7 per cent), of which 3.3 billion in the third quarter (+24 per cent), compared with the 2.7 billion forecast by the consensus. Revenue for the nine-month period rose by 7.5% to 20.3 billion, with net interest income at 11.1 billion (+2.1%) and fee and commission income at 7.1 billion (+7.8%). As for capital strength, the CET 1 ratio stands at 15%, taking into account the deduction of 4.75 billion in share buybacks due in 2025 and 7.3 billion in distributions set aside for the first nine months of 2026. These figures led CEO Orcel to describe it as “the best quarter ever”.