Banks, the Risiko 2025

The banking risk

Unicredit studies the moves after the stakes in the Ops for Bpm: here are the hypotheses

The bank led by Andrea Orcel will swiftly initiate an evaluation 'on the feasibility and impact of the government's prescriptions'.

20 April 2025

3' min read

After the government's decision to give the conditional green light to the public exchange offer on Banco Bpm, countermoves are being studied at Unicredit. The bank led by Andrea Orcel, in fact, will quickly start an assessment 'on the feasibility and impact of the prescriptions'. In the context of the Italian banking risiko, meanwhile, Palazzo Chigi has given the go-ahead without the exercise of Golden Power for Bper's public offer on Popolare di Sondrio. The stakes imposed on Unicredit basically concern four areas, two of which are seen as particularly delicate.

In first place is a complete exit from Russia within a period of nine months. An element that appears, according to some observers, to be difficult to manage, considering that a complete exit from Moscow also depends on decisions by the Russian authorities. Unicredit, in fact, has already greatly reduced its activities but has not yet divested, pending developments in a possible peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Another incisive stake is the request not to reduce the ratio of loans to deposits, so as to favour support for households and small and medium-sized enterprises. Added to this is the request not to reduce the current portfolio of project finance and investments of Anima Holding, the asset management company recently acquired by Banco Bpm at the end of the takeover bid.

Faced with this whole series of stakes, there are many perplexities among observers in the financial world. The mood of the markets, however, will only be known on Tuesday when the stock exchanges reopen. For its part, Unicredit appears oriented towards reaching a decision on the future of the operation within a short timeframe. And, also considering the impact that the prescriptions will have, any hypothesis of a relaunch with respect to the initial conditions of the offer seems increasingly difficult.

The timing of the ops, even after the news arrived on Good Friday, has clearly marked stages. The offer will start on 28 April and end on 23 June. There are, however, a number of conditions that would allow Unicredit to withdraw, although any final decision will still be possible until 30 June.

For Orcel, assuming that there are no new twists and turns, there are basically three possible ways forward: to start the bidding and deal with the prescriptions; to abandon the deal; or to consider a withdrawal during the bidding period if, from the assessments made, the conditions are not right to go ahead. It is still too early to know which path will be taken, according to reports in financial circles. At the Unicredit shareholders' meeting, Andrea Orcel had reiterated that the transaction with Banco Bpm 'must make sense from a value creation point of view or we will not do it'.

Next week is also expected to see the response of Banco, which has already rejected Unicredit's advances. The board of directors of the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna has until two days before the launch of the offer to give its opinion. Given the holidays and weekends, the most likely dates for the board meeting are 23 and 24 April.

Days that are intertwined with the mother of all Italian financial games. On 24 April in Trieste, in fact, there will be the Generali shareholders' meeting to renew the board of directors. In the field there are Mediobanca, with the only majority list and which reconfirms the Donnet-Sironi tandem, the long minority list of Caltagirone, contrary to the Natixis operation, and then the funds. A game in which Unicredit plays a leading role with its 5% share in the Lion of Trieste.

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