UniCredit, Unipol and Generali, the second wave of M&A
Orcel's group's interest in an alliance with Unipol (but operation at risk of stalling). The closure of the match for Mediobanca reopens the dossier on the weights in the Leone
The closure of the Mediobanca game will not mark the end of the banking risiko in Italy, far from it. Mps CEO Luigi Lovaglio has made this clear in recent days: 'Size is no longer an option, but a necessity in order to remain competitive. Just compare the main European banks with those in the United States to grasp the difference in terms of scale and investment capacity. A second phase, the banker added, 'may be triggered in the next few years' and Monte will be 'one of the protagonists'. But certainly not the only one.
Credit and Policies
There are several dossiers on the table, and they are intertwined, not only in the world of credit but also in the world of insurance. Generali, as the company itself has announced, will continue negotiations with Natixis to create a champion in asset management until December, but if the talks do not go well - and many now believe that this could be the outcome - it will return to the market. And, as this newspaper reported on 28 September, the idea of attaching a major Italian bank could be one of the most plausible options.
Thus, while Intesa Sanpaolo seems to be moving cautiously and without a declared interest in M&A operations, UniCredit is undoubtedly exploring all possible avenues both in Italy and abroad. It has recently reduced its shareholding in Trieste's capital to around 2%, but last spring at the Generali shareholders' meeting it had argued for a change of pace, heavily criticising the agreement with the French Natixis.
A stance that did not represent a bid to replace the transalpine in the asset management partnership, but certainly did not rule out potential areas of collaboration between the institution and the insurance company, also in view of the future expiry of the axis with Allianz, which ends in 2027, and will therefore be back on the table in 2026.
Siena, Trieste, Bologna
Now, however, it is impossible not to consider the role that Mps plays in the Lion's shareholding structure, strengthened by the 13% stake held by Mediobanca. In recent weeks, this reflection has led some of the players in the field to consider another eventuality: that of initiating a dialogue with Unipol. UniCredit has created a structure specifically dedicated to the insurance world because there is interest in the sector and a possible bancassurance agreement with the Bologna-based group would certainly give substance to the initiative.
