Unipol: 41 million properties at risk of catastrophe in Italia

In 12 years over 100 billion has been spent on earthquakes, floods and convective storms in Italia. And the pause that 2025 has given us should not lead us to think of a reversal in the increasing number of catastrophic phenomena. Not least because, and this is the most striking figure to emerge from an initiative just launched by Unipol, the country has as many as 41 million properties potentially exposed to destructive natural events. This number is the result of an in-depth analysis conducted by the insurance company to create a tool capable of understanding the risk in order to make the right decisions. This is the Natural risk index (Nri), an original indicator that provides a synthetic and comparable measure of catastrophic risks at regional level. The tool, which uses models developed by Gallagher Re and takes into account three variables, namely earthquake, flood and convective storms, aims to transform complex data into elements that can guide prevention and mitigation policies.

To measure the NRI, the analysis started from the mapping of Italia's real estate assets exposed to catastrophic events, focusing on three macro-sectors: enterprises (production and commercial activities); dwellings (residential assets) and public buildings (Public Administration properties). On the other hand, infrastructures, which follow other logics, were excluded. Based on this macro-sector, the figure of 41 million real estate units at risk emerged. For the most part concentrated in Rome, Milan and Naples. This is the reason why the calculation of the cost of rebuilding these properties is particularly rounded: 14,400 billion euro, equal to seven times the national GDP.

In this context, the Natural risk index (Nri) constitutes a significant methodological evolution as it integrates in a single indicator the three dimensions of risk: hazard (the probability of a damaging event occurring in a given area), vulnerability (how susceptible the assets are to economic damage or loss) and exposure (the economic value of the assets). It is precisely for this reason that the regions with the highest Nri are Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto, since the catastrophe risk in Italia appears to be strongly driven by the interaction between natural hazard and the concentration of economic value, so that the areas with the highest density of homes, businesses and public buildings are the most exposed in absolute terms. If the Nri provides a relative measure of risk, the analysis of the average annual expected cost also makes it possible to grasp the absolute dimension of risk. The research estimates that the average annual cost of natural disasters is approximately 7 billion euros per year, equal to an expected average cost per inhabitant of between 100 and 200 euros. Calabria, Emilia-Romagna and Umbria topped the list in terms of damage per inhabitant. On the opposite side are Valle d'Aosta, Puglia and Sardinia.

All this is a consequence of the protection gap that the country continues to suffer. In fact, the research established that the figure is still significant: 79% nationwide, which means that for every 100 potential damages, only 21 are covered by insurance. This percentage varies between Italian regions, ranging from 72% in Trentino-Alto Adige to 93% in Calabria. For Enrico San Pietro, Group Insurance General Manager of Unipol, "the Natural risk index marks a paradigm shift in the way we read and deal with catastrophe risk in our country. An indispensable change considering that, as Mef undersecretary Federico Freni pointed out, looking at this issue "from the point of view of public accounts, this is not sustainable". And Fausto Bianchi, president of Piccola Industria Confindustria and vice-president of Confindustria, is also aware of this. 'Confindustria has the task of making entrepreneurs aware of the importance of risk prevention, accompanying them on a path that increases the resilience of their companies, and supporting them in managing emergencies when they occur. We are promoting an insurance culture, given that we estimate that less than 15% of Italian businesses are covered by catastrophic risks. This is why, in cooperation with Unipol (which operates in co-insurance with Poste Assicura and Intesa San Paolo Protezione), we have made a digital platform available to businesses for insuring themselves at advantageous conditions". Certainly central then will also have to be an effort "on the part of the public, which will translate into an investment plan to make the territory safe, starting with the areas at greatest risk and with the highest intensity of productive settlements".