Agreements between universities an answer to the demographic and digital challenge

A recent debate in England among the vice chancellors of a number of universities brought to light a shared warning: university systems face 'too many headwinds' (There are too many headwinds). A thought-provoking statement when referring to the three forces - demographics, technology and finance - that are pushing towards inevitable change and can jeopardise the sustainability of the academic system. In the same context, talks between universities such as Kent and Greenwich to initiate a sort of 'quasi-merger' were discussed. Not quite a merger but a sharing of administrative, teaching and research functions.

This scenario, discussed in a particular perimeter such as the UK (where student fees, although far from US levels, often exceed 10,000 euros per year), is not foreign to continental Europe. On the demographic and technological front, indeed, the situation is quite similar.

On the first point, because, compared to a forecast of a drop in enrolment by 2040 of around 40 per cent, it will be difficult to compensate for this with more international students or a surge in the transition rates from high school to university, today around 50 per cent. All other things being equal, this trend will lead to a significant increase in unit costs for universities and the loss of the necessary critical masses.

As for the second factor, it must be said that technology is not only impacting on teaching, but even more profoundly on the processes of university organisation. Technological change is bringing about radical modifications of organisational structures in industries and services, and the idea that public administration and state universities can continue as in the past is now unthinkable. Many administrative procedures will have to be automated through the use of generative and agent artificial intelligence. And many functions will have to revise the thresholds necessary to sustain themselves.

It is in the light of these changes, then, that we need to think about the university of the coming years. Even before individual proposals, it is important to recognise the need for change and overcome inertia, which is as understandable as it is fatal. With clear objectives: how to defend average quality without holding back those who want to do more; how to build organisational and governance structures consistent with the three challenges mentioned above; how to combine organisational and strategic autonomy with financial dependence; and how to match power with responsibility for choices.