University research, 28 out of 61 universities risk premium funding cuts

An unwelcome surprise is likely to come from Vqr 2020-24 for almost half of the state universities. If we take the results of the indicator that combines the quality and quantity of publications that emerged in the last evaluation cycle carried out by Anvur and compare them with those of the previous five-year period (2015-19), we discover that 28 public universities out of 61 have seen their coefficient worsen (45%). And it is not just a matter of statistics or academic prestige. Also affected could be the resources that individual institutions will receive when the Ordinary Financing Fund (FFO) 2026 is distributed.

The conditional is a must, both because Anvur's complete report with the analysis of the individual study areas will not arrive until 28 May, and because the criteria that the Mur will follow in the distribution of the next Ffo have not yet been announced. The risk of a contraction of funding linked to the bonus part of the Fund is, however, there, and it is beginning to creep in even among the rectors after the Evaluation Agency, last week, anticipated the aggregate results per university.

If the purely qualitative results, i.e. based on scientific production (the so-called 'R 1 and 2' indicator, which expresses the average quality of an institution's research products compared to the national average, taking into account the specific disciplinary mix of that university, ed.) saw Padua and Trento ex aequo excel among the state institutions, and the two Milanese universities Statale and Bicocca ex aequo third, the 'Iras 1 and 2' indicator (which also has quantitative elements) reveals a different picture. In the 28 cases listed in the table above, the result is lower than in 2015-19. The group - and this is one of the reasons why the news is bound to make noise - also includes large and mega institutions: Roma Sapienza, Napoli Federico II, Padua, Florence and Pisa.

For a couple of them (Sapienza and Florence), the cut in the Ffo bonus quota would come despite an improvement in purely qualitative performance achieved with respect to the previous evaluation cycle. What would weigh negatively would in fact be the change in expected products between the two Vqr following the different size of the teaching staff between now and then.

For the time being, this is only a danger and not a certainty. First of all because, considering that the Ffo 2026 is set to increase compared to 2025, an increase in the overall premium share could compensate, albeit partially, for the worsening of the indicator. And then because the parameters for calculating the contribution are still to be decided. If they remain the same as in 2025, there would be two implicit corrections linked to the use of two other indicators besides the 'Iras 1 and 2' used in the distribution of the bonus funds. We are talking about 'Iras 3' on research doctorates and 'Iras 4' on the third mission, i.e. on the spin-offs of university action for the territory. On the first front, Padua and Pisa performed better in 2020-24 than in 2015-19, as did Roma Sapienza and Naples - together with Pisa again - on the second.