US tariffs at 30% on EU imports, how they affect Italy, Spain, Greece and Ireland

According to the UPB, the Parliamentary Budget Office, in the current scenario, the sectors of the Italian economy most affected by US tariffs could be the pharmaceutical industry, mining and motor vehicle manufacturing, with more significant job losses in the metal products manufacturing, machinery and textile sectors. Mining would mark a strong loss of added value, as it is strongly interconnected with the various manufacturing activities; significant, albeit indirect, effects would affect some service sectors such as professional activities (architectural, engineering, legal, accounting and management firms), advertising and research and personnel services. The scenarios developed by the UBAE assume a negative impact on Italy's GDP from tariffs of two-tenths of a point in 2026 and one-tenth of a point in 2027.

The spectre of tariffs hovers above all over Italian agribusiness. With 30%, "we couldlose about 2.3 billion of the 7.8" of exports "made today, with significant damage to our agri-food system," recalled Coldiretti president Ettore Prandini. "The value of Italian agri-food exports to the United States in 2024 is 7.8 billion. Without penalising tariffs with a 30% increase in taxation, our forecast is to be able to exceed 9 billion in terms of value in 2025, creating the conditions for which within a few years the US market, even for Italy, could become the leading market in terms of importance for agri-food exports. There is no doubt that any increase in taxation risks nullifying this result,' Prandini pointed out.

For example, the picture that is looming for the PDO cheese chain, which has the USA as its third largest market in the world with over 220,000 wheels exported in 2024, is very heavy. Stefano Berni, director general of the Consorzio Tutela Grana Padano (Consortium for the Protection of Grana Padano Cheese), raised the alarm: 'Grana Padano has been paying a historic tariffs of 15% in exports to the United States for many years. A duty that, after the first months of the Trump presidency, has risen to 25 per cent and therefore now affects almost $6 per kg'. "The tariffs would now rise to around $10 per kilogram of Grana Padano. But American importers and distributors sell Grana Padano to consumers by multiplying the starting price and all the logistical costs they have in the US by 2. This means,' Berni concluded, 'that today they are selling it for just under EUR 40 per kg; but with an additional tariffs of 30%, which will bring the total to 45%, the consumer price will be well over USD 50 per kilogram.

The US tariffs challenge also involves the fashion system, another pride of Made in Italy. "There is no official numerical estimate of the overall economic damage, but the first signals collected among Italian companies in the fashion accessory sector indicate a potentially very serious impact," clarified Giovanna Ceolini, president of Confindustria fashion accessories, on the hypothesis of 30% US tariffs for Europe. Exports to the United States, which reached €2.8 billion in 2024 (-3.5% compared to 2023), represent about 11.1% of the total exports of the companies represented by Confindustria fashion accessories, making the American market the second most important after France. In particular, footwear (with almost 1.4 billion in exports) and leather goods (1.2 billion) are the two sectors of the Federation with the highest exports to the USA. "Our entrepreneurs are worried, foreseeing a strong impact on company results with quite significant consequences: a picture," continued Ceolini, "that suggests that, in the absence of countermeasures, there is a risk of a drastic downsizing of exports and a weakening of international competitiveness, with significant repercussions along the entire production and employment chain. In this context, an acceleration of market diversification strategies is likely: already today, about 51% of companies exporting to the US have begun to explore alternatives (or declare themselves ready to do so), with a focus on Asia (32%) and Europe (31%), followed by the Middle East (19%), Africa (10%) and Oceania (7%). However, opening up to new markets requires time, investment and institutional support,' concluded the president of Confindustria fashion accessories. And of time, at this stage, there is unfortunately little.

Although the Greek economy is not heavily dependent on trade with the United States (which is worth about 5% of total exports), the introduction of 30% tariffs risks damaging strategic sectors such as agribusiness. Greek products, from feta to olive oil via canned fruit, risk becoming too expensive for the US market, with orders already cancelled for the second half of 2025. 'Without support measures, exports are set to fall,' warned Kostas Apostolou, president of the Greek association of canned food producers.

According to Eurobank's analysis, Greek exports to the US are worth less than 1% of GDP, limiting the systemic impact. However, indirect repercussions - mainly via Germany and Italy - could also spread to Greek manufacturing. UBS estimates that for Greece, average tariffs on exports to the US could rise to 30%.

In Spain, the prospect of a trade war with the US pushed the government of Pedro Sánchez and the opposition Popular Party (PP) into an unusual convergence. After the US President's announcement, the executive launched a 14.1 billion plan to support the affected sectors. Among the most exposed sectors: olive oil, wine, automotive components, industrial machinery and medical technology.

The Fenin association, which represents companies in the biomedical sector, called for immediate exemptions for health devices and technologies: 'Patient safety and the continuity of health services cannot be compromised,' it said in a note. In turn, the Spanish government promised to bring the issue to the attention of the EU Commission, also fearing for the copper sector, after Trump announced 50% tariffs on imports of this metal, crucial for the entire electromechanical industry.

Although Ireland accounts for a small share of direct trade with the US, it is heavily exposed in strategic sectors such as pharmaceuticals, aircraft leasing and food & beverage. Employment Minister Peter Burke admitted that the impact of tariffs could be reflected in the tax measures already planned in the next budget bill. The Ibec association, which represents companies, warned that tariffs threaten long-term competitiveness and called for measures on energy and social security contributions to avoid negative effects on employment.

Meanwhile, the Irish government has made it known that it is working with Brussels to avert the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, concerned about possible backlash in the country's most profitable sectors. 'If it came to 30% tariffs, job losses would be inevitable,' commented Tánaiste Simon Harris. According to an analysis by TU Dublin University, Ireland risks heavy setbacks in exports and investments, with a disproportionate impact compared to other European partners.

According to a report by BRD - Groupe Société Générale, if trade tensions with the US escalate and tariffs become a reality, inflation in Romania could rise by up to 10 per cent. Although the baseline scenario remains that of a recession, the National Bank of Romania has estimated that the impact on the country's economic growth rates will be between 0.17 and 0.26 percentage points: exactly what the country recorded in the first quarter of 2025.Two-thirds of this impact would come indirectly, through European value chains, confirming Romania's role as an intermediate supplier in the Eurozone's manufacturing structure, particularly in the electromechanical, automotive and chemical sectors linked to Germany, France and Italy.The furniture industry is among the hardest hit: 'Romania is one of the main European furniture exporters, but our companies are now squeezed between increasing tariffs, blocked contracts and regulatory decisions taken overnight,' said Nadina Nedelea Rus, executive director of the Association of Romanian Furniture Manufacturers.

*This article is part of the European collaborative journalism project Pulse and was contributed by Maria Delaney (The Journal Investigates, Ireland), Lucas Proto and Andrea Muñoz (El Confidencial, Spain), Kostas Zafeiropoulos (Efsyn, Greece) and Dan Popa (Hotnews.ro, Romania).