US tariffs, EU tug-of-war: Italy and Germany cautious, France more aggressive

Still reeling from a tariffs deal that - by the public admission of chief negotiator Maros Sefcovic - 'seemed close', Europe has opted for a semi-armed truce with Donald Trump. The anti-coercion bazooka, evoked for months as a last resort, remains a warning and the second list of counter-duties is taking shape. A 'calibrated' pressure not to blow up the table and, at the same time, not to be caught unprepared by the no deal. On the other side of the Atlantic, however, Trump marches on without a second thought, relaunching the narrative of the 'great plunder' suffered for decades. A lunge blunted later by a hint of the possibility of 'dialogue'.

The 30% tax rate threatened by Trump is seen as 'prohibitive' for transatlantic trade. And the impatience of some countries with Ursula von der Leyen's soft line has begun to filter through. Leading the intransigent faction is Paris, which, through the mouth of Minister Laurent Saint-Martin, has called together with Vienna for Big Tech to be put in the crosshairs.

Instead, counterbalancing the pressure are Rome - represented at the table by Under-Secretary Maria Tripodi, while Minister Antonio Tajani flew to Washington to meet Marco Rubio - and Berlin which, reading in the White House tenant's missive a negotiating move, continue to preach prudence. "This is not a boxing match," Minister Francesco Lollobrigida also warned from Brussels, stressing the risk of an escalation that would end up striking the same European companies twice.

The 1 August deadline is just over two weeks away. One question remains unanswered: what is the lesser evil for Europe, considering that the minimum target of 10% with discounts on strategic sectors seems difficult to achieve. European concessions are already on the table: from American LNG to support for the star-studded defence industry. Italy, in Lollobrigida's proposal, also suggests increasing imports from overseas of protein sources such as soya. But, should not even these cards be enough, even the Danish presidency of the EU urges to 'show their muscles' and activate the machine of counter-tariffs which - adding the two packages outlined so far - would bring the European response over the 90 billion threshold.

In the background, diversification remains in order to reduce dependency and free itself from structural fragilities. With Beijing in view of the summit on 24 July, Brussels sees 'progress' on the rare earths restrictions front, but continues to call for a fast track. And in the meantime it is also looking further ahead, preparing the relaunch of the Cptpp, the Trans-Pacific Partnership alternative to the WTO.