US tariffs hit medium-sized businesses hard: three in four are keeping prices steady but seeing their profit margins shrink
55 per cent of the sector exports to the United States. Faced with tariffs, almost none are changing their strategy: they are defending their prices and sacrificing margins. And only 2 in 10 companies have the right tools to make decisions in the face of uncertainty
In a scenario where more than half of Italy’s medium-sized industrial firms export to the United States, the predominant response to tariffs is neither a reorganisation of trade nor a geographical repositioning: it is cost absorption. In fact, three-quarters of those exposed to the US market choose not to pass on the cost increase to the customer, but instead absorb it into their own margins. This is the clearest finding to emerge from the 25th Report on Italian medium-sized industrial firms, produced by the Mediobanca Research Department, the Tagliacarne Research Centre and Unioncamere, and presented today in Siena.
Hold your ground
The figures speak for themselves. 44.4% of mid-cap companies with exposure to the US are maintaining their prices whilst keeping sales volumes steady; 30.9% are maintaining their prices whilst accepting a fall in the quantities sold. Taken together, three out of four companies are choosing to safeguard their relationships with US customers at the expense of profitability.
The alternatives remain limited: only 14.8% are cutting prices to protect sales volumes, 13.6% are focusing on diversifying into other markets, 4.9% are considering opening new production sites in the United States and 4.3% are exploring trade arrangements with third countries.
Uncertainty as a risk multiplier
Tariffs are the visible tip of a deeper instability. 73.9 per cent of medium-sized enterprises believe that the international environment has already led to increased uncertainty regarding their operations and business prospects, with more than 7 in 10 expecting lower revenues over the next twelve months compared with a scenario of greater stability.
The main risk factors identified are the volatility of energy and raw material costs (54.5 per cent) and geopolitical tensions (53.8 per cent) — almost on a par with the issue of tariffs. The outlook for 2026 remains positive — with turnover expected to rise by 2.5% and exports by 2.7% — but it rests on increasingly shaky ground.
