Wine exports to the US: first positive rebound following the tariffs

The first significant rebound in Italian wine exports to the US. According to EU Commission data compiled by the Italian Wine Union Observatory, in July, shipments of Italian wine rose by 9.5 per cent in value and 1.3 per cent in volume. But that’s not all. After months of decline, the average price of Italian wines also rose (by 8 per cent).

This is a significant figure because it could signal an end to the price cuts implemented by producers in an attempt to offset the impact of tariffs and maintain their market share. “According to our forecasts,” explain representatives of the Uiv Observatory, “an even more substantial increase could be recorded in August. This would be significant because there have not been two consecutive months of growth in Italian wine exports to the US since the beginning of 2025.”

Despite the rebound in July, the trend in the US over the first seven months remains negative (-11%) but is showing an improvement compared with June (when the decline stood at 14 per cent). “It is too early to talk of a turnaround,” commented UIV Secretary-General Paolo Castelletti, “not least because US consumption has not yet picked up. However, this is a first positive sign ahead of major autumn events such as Vinitaly in New York. The risks for European producers in the US remain very much in place, starting with the investigation into overcapacity (which assesses whether a country is producing a quantity far exceeding its domestic demand, ed.) – which could lead to new tariffs – right through to the galloping inflation that is eroding consumers’ purchasing power.”

It should also be noted that last year, the introduction of tariffs in August was preceded by a wave of US wine purchases aimed at building up stocks before the tariffs came into force. These stocks influenced the interpretation of the data over the following twelve months. Now – in the view of many – it is highly likely that stocks have run out and so buyers have resumed placing orders.

“The market in general, and the American market in particular, are undergoing profound change,” commented Carlo Flamini, head of the Uiv Observatory. Consumption patterns are shifting, not only within the wine segment (sparkling wines, cocktails, ready-to-drink), but also towards different beverages such as hard teas (tea with an alcohol content of at least 5 degrees) or cannabis-based kombucha, products that are also more in tune, in terms of packaging, with a market that demands portability and convenience. Wine must adapt to these new trends and rebuild a positive rapport with what remains the world’s largest market.”