Global warming

US, greenhouse gas emissions rise again in 2025

The causes are a particularly cold winter, the development of data centres and the rising price of natural gas. Trump's policies have nothing to do with it so far, but the forecasts for the future are pessimistic

16 January 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The US emitted 2.4% more greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels in 2025 than in the previous year. This is a reversal of the reductions seen in previous years.

The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, according to independent research firm Rhodium Group, is attributable to a combination of a cold winter, the exponential growth of data centres and cryptocurrency mining, and rising natural gas prices. The study's authors stated that environmental policy reforms by the Trump administration were not significant factors in the increase, as they were only implemented this year. Greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and natural gas are the main cause of the worsening global warming, the scientists said.

Carbon dioxide and methane emissions in the United States had decreased by 20% from 2005 to 2024, with some increases occurring in one or two years but with an overall downward trend. Traditionally, carbon pollution has increased in parallel with economic growth, but efforts to promote cleaner energy in recent years have decoupled the two factors, so emissions have decreased despite the increase in gross domestic product.

But the situation changed last year, with pollution growing faster than economic activity, said Ben King, co-author of the study and director of Rhodium's energy group. According to the research, the US put 5.35 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent into the air in 2025, 126 million tonnes more than in 2024.

The causes

The cold winter of 2025 has led to increased heating of buildings, often achieved by natural gas or fuel oil, both major emitters of greenhouse gases, King said. In addition, the significant and noticeable increase in demand for electricity from data centres and cryptocurrency mining has resulted in power plants producing energy. These include coal-fired power plants, which generate more carbon pollution than other energy sources.

Rising natural gas prices eventually contributed to a 13 per cent increase in coal energy, which had shrunk by almost two-thirds since its peak in 2007, King said.

"This is not a huge recovery," King stated, however. "We're not here arguing that coal is back and will dominate the sector or anything like that. But we have seen this increase and that has largely been the reason why emissions have increased in the energy sector."

Trump is not involved (for now)

King said that the Trump administration's list of more than two dozen proposals to dismantle US environmental policies has not been in place long enough to take effect in 2025, but may be more evident in years to come. "So far the data is for one year," he said. "So we have to see how far this trend will hold."

Renewables trend

Solar energy production has increased by 34 per cent, surpassing hydropower, with zero-carbon energy sources now providing 42 per cent of US electricity, Rhodium research points out. "It will be interesting to see what happens when the Trump administration ends subsidies for solar and wind power and discourages their use," King said. "The economic case for adding renewables is still pretty strong," King points out. "Renewable energy sources are still cost competitive in many places. Try as we might, this administration cannot alter the basic economics of these sources."

Expert: an alarming omen

"Unfortunately, the rise in US emissions in 2025 is likely a harbinger of what is to come, as the US federal leadership continues to make what amounts to a huge unforced economic mistake, favouring traditional fossil fuels, while the rest of the world is going all in on mobility and power generation using low-carbon technologies, based primarily on renewables and storage batteries," said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan's School of Environmental Science. Overpeck also said that favouring fossil fuels will harm both the US economy and air quality. (f.s.)