US duties, fashion at risk relies on negotiations

The other soul of Confindustria Moda, the one that brings together the leather-accessories industry, has also repeatedly sounded the alarm about duties: towards the USA in 2024, footwear for 1 billion 388 million euros (-4.9% compared to 2023); bags and small leather goods for 1 billion 216 million euros (-1.6%); leather for 162 million euros (-4.1%) and furs for 21 million euros (-11.9%). In total, therefore, approximately 2.8 billion.

"Following the Trump administration's announcement on the imposition of new 20% duties on all European exports, I express great concern for the repercussions that this decision will have on our companies and on the fashion accessories sector," said Giovanna Ceolini, president of Confindustria Moda Accessori. "The increase in costs for American consumers could, in fact, drastically reduce demand for our products, with negative consequences for our companies and for jobs, which are a fundamental resource for our sector. Ceolini appeals to the European institutions: 'Our sector, which has been severely tested by economic difficulties and geopolitical uncertainties, cannot afford a further setback: this is why we trust in the timely and effective intervention of the European institutions to protect the future of our companies and workers. We hope that, through the negotiations that Trump himself has mentioned, the situation can be resolved'.

On the other hand, the National Chamber of Italian Fashion, which brings together the main brands in the sector, has not spoken out, but President Carlo Capasa had repeatedly expressed concern about the introduction of these protectionist measures.

The duties might not have an excessive impact on luxury purchases, since consumers at the top of the pyramid are generally 'inelastic' to price changes - nor would they have a leverage effect on production: some workmanship is not exportable - while they might have an effect on medium and low-priced products. Moreover, on high-end products, as Luca Solca of Bernstein pointed out, import duties are already applied in the US, so if the 20 per cent incorporated the tariffs already applied, the effect would be mitigated. According to some analysts surveyed back in February, then, the increase in charges will lead to a butterfly effect in important markets such as China - whose recovery is slowing down and could slow down again - and in markets such as Germany, on which the duties on the automotive, steel and mechanical components sectors will weigh heavily.

Among the (few) positive effects reported so far could be an increase in tax-free spending: Americans now contribute about a quarter of the total value and according to Mathieu Grac, VP Intelligence Strategy at Global Blue, Europe's leading tax-free operator, 'The price increase that could result from the tightening of tariffs would lead to a proportional increase twice as high. It remains to be seen whether Europe would be considered the closest shopping destination, or whether Americans would go to Canada'.