USA: Trump at 48% in Iowa Republican primary polls, vote today

Trump also knows, from personal experience, that nothing should be taken for granted as the Republican caucuses are secret and this could lead to surprises.

In 2016 he was ahead in all the polls in Iowa, but in the end it was Texas senator Ted Cruz who sang victory.

Trump made a surprise visit to his campaign volunteers at the Fort Hotel in Des Moines. CNN reports. The former president spoke for nearly 20 minutes and announced an "extraordinary" victory in tomorrow's primary. Asked by reporters present if he was worried about Nikki Haley's comeback in New Hampshire Trump said he was still ahead in the polls of all other Republican candidates.

The latest Des Moines Register poll, however, confirms the rise of Nikki Haley and there is optimism among the former ambassador's staff even though 'nothing is taken for granted. Iowa has a chance, the first in the country, to voice the desire for a new generation of conservative leaders like Nikki Haley instead of always the same Donald Trump'.

A solid second-place finish by the former ambassador could change the race for the White House, allowing her to go into the New Hampshire primary - where she has strong support - with the wind in her sails and present herself as the real alternative to Trump.

The road to 2024 for Haley, however, is not an easy one: support among potential non-college-educated voters is only 3% while Trump dominates unchallenged in this bracket.

Who has the most to lose on election night is DeSantis. The former governor of Florida has long been considered the biggest threat to the former president. But his campaign has never really taken off and Iowa - all 99 counties of which he has visited - represents a possible decisive test: he will have to prove he is the anti-Trump or drop out of the race.

If he were to come in third, it would confirm the Republican Party's fears about his political appeal and increase the pressure on him to step back so as to allow a run.

Not least because the longer the fight between Haley and DeSantis goes on, the greater the benefits for Trump. "Winning campaigns don't rely on public data," says DeSantis's staff commenting on the Des Moines Register poll, noting how the former governor's campaign is "perfect for the expected weather conditions," being able to benefit from low turnout.

Although the outcome of the caucuses appears to be a foregone conclusion with Donald Trump winning, there is still suspense. Mindful of past experiences, Iowa will try to avoid another black night in the vote count.

In 2012 Mitt Romney was declared the caucus winner but 16 days later the state Republican party, struggling to count the votes, announced that the real winner was in fact Rick Santorum. In 2020 the Democratic caucuses were a debacle with huge problems: the army of journalists who had invaded the state for the important event left before the results were known. For election night everything is now ready. What remains to be seen is how many brave residents will venture out in minus 30 degrees to make their voices heard.

After Iowa, which allocates 40 delegates to the Republican convention, the primary calendar sees New Hampshire on the ballot on 23 January (for both Democrats and Republicans) and will culminate in Super Tuesday on 5 March.