Vannacci effect on the centre-right, new electoral law to be recalculated
Concerns about the flank being uncovered on the right and the campaign against support for Ukraine. Doubts about the return to pure proportionality
Key points
From the quarters of Fratelli d'Italia, the party of the premier Giorgia Meloni, the ire towards Matteo Salvini and the underestimation of the Vannacci danger is ill-concealed. 'We need the League not strong, but not dead,' mutter the colonels out of their teeth. Instead, with the more than 3% that the pollsters (first and foremost Youtrend) today attribute to the general's new movement, thanks to the draining of votes from Fdi and the Legazzi, and with the Carroccio sailing between 7 and 8%, the risk of a weakened Lega, which will not even reach the 4% threshold assumed in recent weeks for the new electoral law, is considered more than concrete.
The uncovered side to the right
That Vannacci's farewell is 'potentially deflagrating for the centre-right coalition', at microphones off, is not denied by anyone, neither inside Fdi nor inside Forza Italia. Because 'Futuro Nazionale', aiming at the easy consensus on the right, on paper could empty the League and then move on to attack the votes of Fratelli d'Italia, attracting the most extremist, perhaps disappointed by Meloni's 'pragmatism', especially in foreign policy.
Security and Ukraine, the most risky files
The fear is also linked to the fact that there is a year to go before the political elections. This is a time that can be very useful to the general," Fdi points out, "to recruit parliamentarians (today it was announced that Emanuele Pozzolo, former Fdi convicted for the New Year's Eve shooting and then joined the Mixed party, has joined Futuro Nazionale), to organise in the territories and grow further. There are mainly two issues on which he could ride the discontent on the right, the ones that are the most worrying: security - on which in fact the government is in a hurry to present the new package of interventions (a decree-law and also a bill that will make its way through parliament and 'which allows us to keep attention alive for months') - and, even more, Ukraine. Vannacci's firm opposition to new aid, his pro-Russianism and the weariness of Italian public opinion after four years of war play in his favour. 'He may have a prairie ahead of him', is the widespread fear.
Electoral law, all to be redone?
Vannacci's farewell, therefore, complicates the entire pre-electoral strategy and, above all, throws up in the air the calculations that have so far accompanied the revision hypotheses of the Rosatellum. With a right-wing force out of the coalition - these are the first reasonings underway - the return to proportional representation with the cancellation of the single-member constituencies could prove to be a boomerang. But, at the same time, the confirmation of the colleges would not solve the problem of the potential advantage in the South of the united wide field. A puzzle that Meloni and Fdi would gladly have done without. If only Salvini had been able to 'govern' his creature.
