New VAT registrations: retail activity falls. Healthcare and education on the rise

The first few months of this year confirm the decline in new business start-ups. For every 100 VAT registrations opened between January and March, only 12.3 were in the retail sector; until 2021, this figure had always been above 20 per cent, and even last year it stood at 16 per cent. The decline affects both retail and wholesale businesses. It also affects online sales, as can be seen from the slump in VAT registrations opened by non-residents (-72.6 per cent in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2025), who are ‘essentially online trading companies’, as the Finance Department’s Observatory points out.

However, whilst in the case of online sales the decline in new tax registrations may also be due to market concentration in the hands of a few large and very large operators, for traditional sales everything suggests that the difficulty is widespread. The OMI Property Report notes, in fact, that new shop leases fell from 40 per cent to 35 per cent of the total number of non-residential leases recorded by the tax authorities on an annual basis between 2016 and 2022, before remaining stable at that percentage until 2025. It is clear that the registration of a new VAT-registered business is often accompanied by the letting of commercial premises.

The new figures also reveal something else. Overall, in the first quarter of 2026 – despite a 2.2 per cent year-on-year decline – 184,895 VAT registrations were opened. The share accounted for by the retail sector was surpassed, albeit only slightly, by health and social care activities (12.5 per cent): the only sector, alongside education and training, to show an increase in new registrations (+15 per cent). In short, whilst the number of new businesses has remained steady at around half a million a year over the last ten years, the mix of choices made by companies, firms and the self-employed is changing.

The Treasury’s database operates on the basis of Ateco macro-codes, which are often heterogeneous within each category. The ‘Human health and social work activities’ sector, for example, includes doctors, dentists, psychologists, nurses and physiotherapists, but also those who transport patients by ambulance and those who perform ‘body treatment techniques’ (massages). Meanwhile, the education sector ranges from primary to tertiary education; and training may be sporting, recreational or cultural, but also includes language courses, professional development courses or driving schools.

Certainly, healthcare and education are sectors with low capital intensity, which are also well suited to flat-rate scheme, which is, in fact, continuing to grow. Also in this first quarter of the year, 104,136 individuals opted for the flat-rate scheme: equivalent to 75 per cent of new businesses set up by individuals. This figure stood at 73.9 per cent in the first quarter of last year and amounted to 70.7 per cent for the whole of 2025.