VAT numbers, fiscal pact 2025-26: in the North and in services half of those affected

At the sectoral level, again among Isa subjects, the self-employed and companies operating in services gather a little more than half of those interested for the two-year period 2025-26: about 1.2 million out of 2.3. This is followed by commerce (422,000 contributors) and the professions (394,000).

The data on the first round show a different sensitivity of companies according to their tax reliability rating: among those who scored at least 8 on the Isa, adhesions were around 22 per cent; among those who received lower scores, they were around 12 per cent.

Therefore, based on the declarations submitted in 2024 - which have just been published by Finance - it can be assumed that there will be 1.3 million Vat parcels affected by the 2025-26 arrangement with a grade below 8 and about 950,000 with at least an 8 on their report card.

Theoretically, if the acceptance rate of the IRS proposals remained the same as in the first edition, the pact for 2025-26 would obtain just under 200,000 adhesions. This is, of course, abstract reasoning, because we do not yet know the Isa 2025 report cards and because the impact of regulatory changes and the algorithm that will calculate the proposed income will have to be seen in practice.

A company that experienced a drop in turnover in the 2024 tax year will lower the basis of calculation and receive a lower - and perhaps more attractive - 2025-26 proposal for an arrangement than the 2024-25 proposal.

Those with a rating higher than 8 will also benefit from the cap on the maximum income increase proposed by the IRS. On the other hand, associated firms or companies with many partners may be held back by the fact that changes in the corporate structure, which are not always predictable, will lead to the forfeiture of the agreement. It will also have to be taken into account that - for the time being - the package of benefits offered in 2025-26 lacks the tax amnesty on past years, which is instead combined with the 2024-25 agreement. But here one cannot exclude interventions by Parliament, perhaps in the conversion of the tax decree.

It is clear that much of the success of the next round of concordat will depend on the ability to engage the self-employed and businesses with the worst marks. In the service sector - the one with the widest potential - there are the categories with the highest incidence of those below an 8 on the report card: from car rental businesses (81.3%) to nightclubs (77%), from laundries (75.8%) to restaurants (74.5%).